Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks (3/7/24)

The Boston Celtics (48-13) face the Denver Nuggets (42-20) this Thursday (3/7/24). Get Celtics vs. Nuggets player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate this Celtics vs. Nuggets game?

Jamal Murray Over 22.5 Points (-106 FD) & 30+ Points (+440 FD)

Few players rise to the occasion during high-pressure moments like Jamal Murray, who is just one of seven players in NBA history to average at least 25 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds in the playoffs (min. 10 games). 

This potential Finals preview certainly qualifies as an important contest, so Murray will likely be in top form. Additionally, it’s a decent matchup for him. Boston’s defense allows the fourth most wide open three-point attempts, the most above the break three-point attempts, and the largest off-the-dribble three-point frequency (via Murray can exploit these tendencies, as he shoots nearly 44 percent from above the break and 42 percent on pull-up threes. His outside shot will be a massive weapon here against Boston’s elite defense. 

In their previous matchup on January 19th, Murray exploded for 35 points on 15/21 shooting from the field. He only racked up three free throw attempts, so that did not inflate his total too. 

For the bets to have a positive expected value, Murray needs to score 23 points at least 52 percent of the time and 30 points at least 19 percent of the time. 

Kristaps Porzingis 2+ 3PM (-215 DK)

Nikola Jokic is a slow north to south defender who struggles to explode into a contest. As a result, he will not be able to step out in time when the opponent runs a pick-and-pop out of a high ball screen. That’s Kristaps Porzingis’ bread and butter; he is shooting 37 percent on over five attempts per game from deep. 

Porzingis has made two threes in 14 of his past 17 games (82 percent), which includes a 3/5 performance against Denver. Based on his odds, he needs to hit this line at least 69 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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