Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers NBA First Basket Picks Tonight (12/4/23)

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers First Basket Picks

The goal of the first basket prop is to identify which player will score the first basket of the game. It’s important to note that first basket includes free throws, while first field goal does not.

Jaylen Brown First Basket (+500 FD) & Jaylen Brown First Basket Exact Layup (TBD FD)

Al Horford is a slight favorite to win the tip-off over Myles Turner. 

Jaylen Brown has taken Boston’s first field goal attempt in 27.7 percent of his starts, which leads the team (min. 10 starts). He faces a Pacers defense that is easily giving up the most restricted area field goal attempts per game, as well as the fifth most points per game to small forwards. Brown is virtually tied with Jayson Tatum for the most restricted area field goal attempts per game by a Celtic, which bodes well for him. 

Overall, his usage and matchup is extremely encouraging. Indiana’s defense absolutely bleeds layups, so taking his exact method is also a wise move. Brown must record the first basket (which includes free throws) roughly 16.7 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Al Horford First Basket (+950 FD)

Al Horford only owns seven starts, but he has taken Boston’s first field goal attempt in 28.5 percent of them. Opposing centers average the most points per game against Indiana, and Myles Turner’s shot-blocking nature won’t mix well against Horford’s three-point range. The veteran struggled from deep to start the year, but he has shot a 44.7 3PT% over his last eight games. Horford can also score via a put-back because the Pacers rank 27th in opponent offensive rebound rate. 

Horford needs to score the first basket about 9.6 percent of the time. 

Myles Turner First Pacers Field Goal (+260 BMGM)

Myles Turner has taken Indiana’s first field goal attempt in an absolutely massive 50 percent of his starts. This mark would have considerably led the NBA last year. With Kristaps Porzingis and his elite defense sidelined, Turner’s chances are drastically improved, although that’s not to say Horford isn’t a good defender. Opposing centers average the eighth most made threes per game against Boston, and Turner is attempting just over four threes per game. He’s struggling with his shot to start the year (32.9 3PT%), but Turner remains a capable outside shooter. 

Turner needs to score Indiana’s first field goal (doesn’t include free throws) about 27.8 percent of the time. 

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers First Basket Data

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers First Basket Odds