Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks For Monday Night Football (11/6/23)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets kicks off this Monday at 8:15pm EST in East Rutherford New Jersey as a home game for the Jets. The Chargers are currently a -3.5 favorite and -178 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40. Expect a low scoring affair between a stout defense and a struggling offense, giving value to Austin Ekeler and Justin Herbert for a same game parlay in this Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Same Game Parlay Picks
Even amidst the worst-case scenario with Aaron Rodgers getting injured four plays into his Jets career, Zach Wilson and an elite defense has managed to steady the ship by starting off the season 4-3. As for the Chargers, they have also been on the wrong side of injury luck as Justin Herbert deals with an injury to his non-throwing hand while Austin Ekeler has looked out of sorts since coming back from his own injury. Both players will be vital to the Chargers offensive success as the Jets have elite talent at all three levels of the defense.
Leg 1: Under 40
Whoever coined the phrase “what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object” better have something for when the opposite happens. That is exactly what we are going to get when the Jets anemic offense takes on the Chargers weak defense on primetime.
That plays towards the under as the defense usually gets the advantage in this circumstance. Especially when the Chargers defense is loaded with talent, just failing to gel it all together for the full course of a game. Especially when it’s because they fail to generate pressure while blitzing at an average rate, ranking 29th at Pressure and 15th in Blitz Rate.
They now get the added benefit of taking on one of the worst offensive lines in the league, getting the ability to collapse the pocket and alleviate pressure on their back end. Factor in the Chargers offense expected to slow down against a stout Jets defense and points may come at a premium in what should be a defensive slug fest.
Leg 2: Justin Herbert Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards
With the Jets defense primarily running cover 2, success through the air will come from underneath throws which gives plenty of value towards the under on Justin Herbert’s longest completion prop. Especially when he may have to get the ball out of his hands quicker than expected, going against a Jets defense that ranks first overall in Pressure Rate.
Justin Herbert balled out on SNF:
⚡ 31/40 completions
⚡ 298 passing yards
⚡ 3 TDs pic.twitter.com/bDPSvkiAD8
— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2023
Herbert will also find himself barren of a true downfield threat as both Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are on IR. Quentin Johnston is expected to slot into that role but has been used more as a cross route runner rather than a downfield threat.
Leg 3: Justin Herbert Pass Attempts Over 34.5
Just because downfield attempts may come at a premium, doesn’t mean Herbert won’t be in a position to sling it. Especially with the ground game expected to continue to struggle as the Jets front seven currently ranks sixth in Def Rush Success Rate. That’s less than ideal against a Chargers offense that clocks in at 22nd in Rush DVOA and 30th in Rush Success Rate.
With a low total and a tight spread indicating that this will be a tight contest to the very end, the Chargers offense may need to rely on a heavy dose of the pass in order to get the win. We don’t need completions against a stout pass coverage unit, just need Herbert to keep slinging it in order to cash this leg.
Leg 4: Austin Ekeler Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
With the Chargers ground game expected to struggle as previously mentioned, Austin Ekeler may find himself in a more pass catching role when in the backfield. A couple of factors play into this, mainly helping Herbert deal with the pressure as a potential recipient to dump offs when the pocket collapses. When that instance happens, Ekeler will find himself with plenty of room to work with as the Jets secondary plays drop back coverage and leave the middle open for the picking.
Same Game Parlay Card For Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets
Justin Herbert Longest Completion Under 36.5 Passing Yards
Justin Herbert Pass Attempts Over 34.5
Austin Ekeler Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Full SGP Odds: +1600 ($10 wins $160.00)