Get Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots player prop picks & odds for the (12/03/23) matchup.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Foxborough Massachusetts as a home game for the Patriots. The Chargers are currently a -5.5 favorite and -240 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40.5. Expect Rhamondre Stevenson and Justin Herbert to be the focal point of their respective units while Austin Ekeler continues to struggle, all giving value as player props for this Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
It’s a changing of the guard as Mac Jones has been benched yet again. This time off of an embarrassing performance against the league worst New York Giants, failing to eclipse 100 yards while throwing two interceptions. The Mac Jones experiment has now come to an end as practice videos have leaked of him not even participating in quarterback drills.
That now thrusts Bailey Zappe back into the starting role in a desperate attempt to generate any sort of offense for the New England Patriots. While he is capable of stretching the field, his offensive line will do him no favors as they routinely get abused by the Chargers front four as well as having to throw to one of the worst pass catching units in football.
That may lead to a more balanced game script, one that calls for more rushing attempts in Rhamondre’s favor as he is in a position to run wild against a weak Chargers defense. The Chargers rank 26th in Def Rush DVOA, 23rd in Def Rush Success Rate, and 21st in Def Rush EPA, fielding one of the worst second levels in the NFL that gives plenty of open field for Stevenson to work with.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown
Not only will Rhamondre Stevenson be the focal point of the offense in the mid field, but he should see an uptick in red zone opportunities as well. That plays towards a higher chance of cashing this prop as the Patriots will need to maximize on their chances of punching one in to stay within scoring pace of the Chargers offense.
Tie ballgame at MetLife as Rhamondre Stevenson rumbles in for 6!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/X3MEqB0Rgz
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 26, 2023
In order to capitalize on their opportunities, that means to use the ground game inside the 10 rather than the pass attack as that limits turnover worthy plays at the most critical part of the field. Scoring and downfield success has been an issue, but the Chargers defense as a whole has played that poorly to the point an uptick in success is imminent.
It is worth noting that Ezekiel Elliott is a potential vulture in these goal line scenarios as the Patriots bull back, but he is currently dealing with an injury and may see his attempts diminish. Stevenson also possesses the ability to cash this in a screen or dump off, being a threat through the air as well.
Justin Herbert Over 245.5 Passing Yards
It was an underwhelming passing performance for Herbert in his last game against the Baltimore Ravens defense, throwing for 217 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a ten-point loss. That makes this an intriguing bounce back spot as the Patriots coverage metrics have taken a nosedive since the injury to Christian Gonzalez.
The Patriots pass defense metrics have steadily trickled down as the season has moved along, now ranking 25th in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass Success Rate, and 28th in Def Pass EPA. Factor in a run game that has yet to hit the ground running and the Chargers best course of action is to abuse the pass against a weak Patriots secondary.
Austin Ekeler Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
As noted in the previous prop, the Chargers ground game has yet to find any sort of consistency. This is in large part of Austin Ekeler failing to round back into form since returning from injury, stringing together some shockingly underwhelming performances that have reverted this offense into a one-dimensional pass attack.
Those struggles are in a position to continue against the Patriots front seven as they rank an impressive fifth in Def Rush DVOA, and first in Def Rush Success Rate and Def Rush EPA. Factor in the Chargers offensive line ranking an abysmal 27th in Adjusted Line Yards and high-quality holes for Ekeler to run through will come at a premium. Low quality rushing lanes directly correlate to this props under, as well as potentially seeing an uptick in pass attempts against a weak Patriots secondary.