The Los Angeles Chargers are far from home for a primetime clash with the New York Jets on Monday Night Football (11/6/23). Get Chargers vs. Jets odds, picks and predictions below as our best bet is Jets +3.5
Chargers vs Jets Prediction
After a dramatic, ugly, and very important win over the New York Giants, the Jets are on a three-game win streak and more importantly, back over .500. Amazingly enough, even without Aaron Rodgers, they’re right in the thick of the AFC East race; they currently own the head to head tiebreaker over the 5-4 Bills, and can be just a half game back of the Dolphins with a win on Monday night.
As for the Chargers, they’re only a game worse than the Jets with a 3-4 record, but in a division that contains the Kansas City Chiefs, it feels very different. A win over the Chicago Bears sans Justin Field allowed LA to avoid a complete tailspin of a three-game losing streak, but the schedule doesn’t start getting easier any time soon so if the Chargers want to hold onto their last shred of playoff hopes in a hyper-competitive AFC, they need to start stacking wins right now.
That’s going to be hard against a Jets defense that has been absolutely dominant this season, despite being forced to spend vast amounts of time on the field due to general offensive incompetence. Zach Wilson and company have found some timely plays to be sure- after a miraculous last-second escape against the Giants, Wilson leads the league with three fourth quarter comebacks in the Jets four wins- but the offense ranks 29th in DVOA, compared to sixth for the defense. That being said, the Chargers have almost the exact opposite problem- Justin Herbert’s offense ranks eighth in DVOA, but their talented defense has once again fallen flat under Brandon Staley and is 27th best by the metric.
The contrast in styles makes it really hard to play the total. It’s easy to imagine a defensive grind where the Jets defense shines but the offense flops, but the LA offense could also find enough plays to push this relatively low total over, and their defense could help in that pursuit as well.
Picking a winner in this one is fairly tough- I’d lean the Jets, due to the difficulty of winning on the road with a coach like Staley, but the spread provides us with more value. The half-point hook is key in a game that could be a messy one decided by a field goal or less, it’s a number you have to consider for a home underdog that isn’t at a massive disadvantage.
You could argue that the Chargers are the better squad, their talent surely suggests it, but the gap in performance between these two teams this season isn’t nearly enough to justify such a friendly line for New York.
Chargers vs Jets Prediction: Jets +3.5
Chargers vs Jets Best Odds
The Jets are 3.5 point home underdogs, or +145 on the moneyline, while the Chargers are -175 to win. The total is set at an interesting 40, with -110 odds on either side.
Chargers vs Jets Key Injuries
Both teams are dealing with injuries to pass catchers, as Joshua Palmer has been ruled out for the Chargers and Allen Lazard is questionable to play for the Jets.
Chargers vs Jets Key Matchups
The Chargers prefer to throw the football, which might be tough against a loaded Jets defense, while the Jets might struggle to exploit the Chargers’ patchwork secondary, so let’s take a look at who might be able to have a big day and get the job done.
Chargers Air Offense Vs. Jets Pass Defense
This matchup may feel slightly non-specific, but attacking these Jets requires excellence at all levels. Their pass rush has been outstanding, ranking tops in the league in pressure rate despite blitzing at just the 30th-highest rate, while the secondary is of course a star unit. Sauce Gardner has once again been phenomenal at cornerback, and even linebacker duo Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley are both earning PFF coverage grades over 90.
The Chargers offensive line has actually been pretty solid in the pass blocking arena, ranking dead average as per PFF, and ninth in adjusted sack rate. They’ll have to have a big day, as Herbert has really struggled under pressure this year; he’s completed under half of his passes on such snaps, and has a negative big time throw to turnover worthy play differential. Keenan Allen will need to have a big time performance against that secondary, as the Palmer injury paired with the earlier loss of Mike Williams leaves him essentially alone in LA’s wideout room.
Jets Passing Game vs. Chargers Air Defense
Zach Wilson has shown an ability to deliver big throws this year, but he hasn’t done it anywhere near consistently enough. That being said, he’s completed over 67% of his throws when kept clean compared to just over 42% when pressured, so keeping him comfortable could go a long way towards a Jets win. Garrett Wilson has been phenomenal, and should find acres of space against this Chargers secondary, and Joe Tipppmann coming back at center will be a huge boost after the position was a serious issue against the Giants.
If Wilson is ever going to have a good game, it’s going to have to be against these Chargers, who rank 29th in pass defense EPA and 30th in success rate on those snaps. They also rank 29th in pressure despite blitzing at a league-average rate, but the secondary is the real issue; it’s just too easy to get the ball out against them. The unit ranks 21st as per PFF but even that feels generous, as they’ve been visibly problematic all season long.