Get Chargers vs. Packers player prop picks & odds for the (11/19/23) matchup.
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A pair of pass-first offenses is almost always going to be a recipe for a fun ballgame, and with two units that absolutely fit the bill, we’ll hope that this game will be no exception, but who exactly will fill up the scoresheet?
Jordan Love Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Let’s get started with some context; Love has been over this number just once in his past five games, but that doesn’t begin to tell the story. That game was his most recent outing, against a solid Steelers defense, and in his previous two contests, he threw for 228 and 229 yards, so he came as close as possible to hitting this over without actually doing so; clearly, he’s trending in the right direction.
Even if he hadn’t been putting up some good numbers lately, the Chargers pass defense is a great slump buster for opposing quarterbacks. They rank 26th in the league in EPA against the pass, and a similar 25th in DVOA, with the 28th-best success rate as the cherry on top. They blitz at the 13th-highest rate in the league, but are just 25th in pressure rate, so they routinely sacrifice men in coverage without actually bringing heat on the quarterback.
On the other side of the football, the Chargers are still a very solid offense, especially through the air. They’ll be fully able to score on a vulnerable Packers defense, which will in turn force Green Bay to stick to the air game to keep pace, rather than trying to force the issue with a rushing attack that ranks just 25th in DVOA. Love still isn’t the best quarterback around, but he’s fully capable of smashing this modest number in a matchup with the Chargers, especially in a script where I expect the Packers, who are +3, to be playing from behind and throwing the football.
Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Reed, a rookie second-round pick out of Michigan State, has quietly put together a very respectable start to his NFL career in Green Bay. Reed has been quite efficient, leading the Packers with 1.88 yards per route run, and his average depth of target of 12.7 yards trails only the oft-injured Christian Watson on the team list.
Speaking of Watson, he’s expected to play, but he’s still dealing with a shoulder issue, and could be limited. His potential struggles could mean a bump in targets for Reed, who has been putting up some solid numbers of late, often outpacing Watson even when both are on the field.
Reed racked up a career-best 84 yards in the recent game against the Steelers, and while the game before that was a bit of a flop, he accumulated 83 air yards the week before that one. Overall, he’s been over this number in six of his nine games thus far, so the odds are pretty solid that he’ll be able to crack it against a very mediocre Chargers secondary.
Keenan Allen Under 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While the Packers defense overall has been a bit worse than expected, or at least hoped, the secondary has held up fine, ranking an even 10th in PFF’s grading system. They also might be getting a major reinforcement this week; after missing last week’s game, top corner Jaire Alexander appears to be trending towards playing, as his recovery from a shoulder injury seems to be going well.
This isn’t really a fade on Allen, who I consider to be one of the top receiving threats in the league; this just isn’t the right day for him, or perhaps more relevantly, the right number. We’re selling high on this wager after a 175 yard explosion last week- before then, 85 was the best total he accumulated in any of his previous five games.
The Chargers should be playing from ahead in this one, and even when they do go to the air, there should be an increased emphasis on getting a higher target share for first round rookie Quentin Johnston. The wideout from TCU scored his first touchdown last week, and as he continues to settle into LA’s offense, he’s especially likely to draw more targets than usual if Alexander is healthy and latching onto Allen.
Anders Carlson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+115)
After a slower start to the season, as Green Bay’s offense finished drives at an unsustainable rate, Carlson has gotten more involved as the season has gone along. He’s kicked multiple field goals in four of his last six outings, including each of the two most recent contests.
This matchup provides a perfect storm for Carlson to have some chances to kick. As we’ve discussed, the Chargers defense has a lot of problems and should afford Green Bay the opportunity to move the ball down the field. That being said, the Packers red zone offense has been terrible- just 46.88% of their trips inside the opponent’s 20 yard line have ended with six points.
In summary, there should be plenty of drives moving into Chargers territory, but with a high chance of stalling out when the field shortens up. Carlson should be given at least a couple of chances to salvage three points, and based on his past performance, he should nail them- he’s drilled all 11 kicks of fewer than 40 yards he’s attempted this season.