Get Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers player prop picks & odds for the (1/7/24) matchup.
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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST in Green Bay, Wisconsin as a home game for the Packers. The Bears are currently a +3 underdog and +140 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45. Expect Jordan Love and Justin Fields to thrive while Khalil Herbert and Aaron Jones have polar opposite rushing performances, all giving value as player props for this Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers matchup.
Justin Fields Over 197.5 Passing Yards
While the Chicago Bears are already eliminated from playoff contention, they still have plenty to play for as they get the chance to play spoiler by knocking the Packers out of the playoffs. This game also serves as one last chance for Justin Fields to prove why he is the guy moving forward as the Bears currently possess the No. 1 overall pick and have a shot at drafting USC’s Caleb Williams.
Better yet for Fields, he has as good a chance as any to shred a Packers secondary who has mightily regressed throughout the season. Even with Jaire Alexander returning from suspension, the Packers have still struggled in coverage as they rank 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 22nd in Def Pass EPA and 27th in Def Pass Success Rate.
When the Packers front seven is unable to generate pressure, opposing quarterbacks have had no issue with shredding a wide-open middle of the field. This is due to the Packers defensive scheme, blitzing at the 10th highest rate in the NFL. This has resulted in a Pressure Rate of sixth in the league, yet a lowly 15th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. Expect Fields to counter the blitz with quick outs, hitting his playmakers in the open field.
Khalil Herbert Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
Not only do the Packers struggle to contain pass success, but their front seven is also prone to getting run over by opposing running backs. They enter the contest ranked 26th in Def Rush DVOA, 20th in Def Rush Success Rate, 23rd in Def Rush EPA and 21st in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
It may seem counterintuitive to take a rushing yard over prop along with a passing yard over prop but that goes to show how much this defense has regressed. This is also a good reminder to always line shop when making a wager as this prop can be found as high as 62.5 which is a seven-yard difference. The sheer difference in yardage alone can be the deciding factor of cashing this prop or not.
Aaron Jones Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
While Khalil Herbert is in a position to thrive, Aaron Jones will be running into a brick wall as the Chicago Bears are one of the best run stopping units in the league. The Bears enter this contest ranked fourth in Def Rush DVOA, third in Def Rush Success Rate and fourth in Def Rush EPA.
US Bank Stadium is Aaron Jones training facility. Need this Sunday night😭🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Hac2F4owgc
— RR🧀🐺🇪🇷 (@ReallyRichx2) December 29, 2023
A large part of the Bears rush defense success stems from their defensive line, a unit that thrives at generating a push back from the opening snap. The Bears front four ranks third in Def Adjusted Line Yards, bottling up opposing rush success in the trenches for a majority of the contest.
With the Packers in desperation mode to get the win, they may utilize Aaron Jones in more of a pass catching role to help counter the Bears run stopping front four. Bull back A.J. Dillon may also see an uptick in carries in short yardage situations, being the better option to try and break through the middle against a stout front seven.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With the Packers ground game in a position to struggle against an elite Bears front seven, it will be on Jordan Love to carry the offense with his arm. He has done a fantastic job under center as of late, leading the Packers to impressive pass metrics of fifth in Pass DVOA, sixth in Pass EPA and 12th in Pass Success Rate.
He will be in a great position to thrive once again as the Bears secondary has struggled in coverage. While their front seven is elite at run stopping, the secondary dips to 17th in Def Pass DVOA and 15th in Def Pass EPA. That gives the Packers a chance to consistently move the ball down the field into scoring position. When in the red zone, the Packers should keep the ball through the air to avoid stalling out running against the Bears elite front seven.