Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday (1/7/24) at 4:25pm EST in Green Bay Wisconsin as a home game for the Packers. Get Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Bears +9 as a valuable Wong Teaser piece.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet
It’s playoff clinching week and the Green Bay Packers find themselves in firm control of their own destiny to win the NFC North. Though they are currently the seventh seed of the NFC, they have not locked up their playoff spot. A loss would give them a 16% of making the playoffs while a win secures a spot in the playoffs. While the Bears have been eliminated already, history leans towards Chicago’s when it comes to betting on the spread. Heading into Week 18 of the 2023 season, eliminated teams have gone 100-64-4 ATS since 1990 against teams who need to win in the final week of the season.
The trend makes sense as oddsmakers overinflate the line towards the desperate team’s favor, as well as being steamed up by the betting public. Even better when these two teams come in fairly matched per DVOA with Green Bay ranking 21st and Chicago 23rd. Green Bay’s offense has dominated the headlines, but their defense has regressed to near league worst which is exactly what Chicago needs in order to maintain scoring pace with the Packers.
Green Bay enters the contest ranked 30th in Def DVOA with both their pass and rush defense faltering as of late. Their front seven ranks 25th in Def. Rush DVOA, 20th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 22nd in Def Rush EPA and now takes on a Bears ground game who excels at generating rush production. Chicago comes into this game ranked top-10 in Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. The Bears ground game will also control time of possession, reducing the amount of Packers offensive drives which tightens the spread.
As for the secondary, the defensive metrics drop off even more as the Packers back end ranks 30th in Def. Pass DVOA, 30th in Def. Pass Success Rate, and 29th in Def. Pass EPA. The Bears rank below average in pass metrics yet get the advantage of throwing against a stacked back end as their ground game will command defensive attention. With higher quality passing lanes outside the hashes, Justin Fields should generate more consistent pass success against this weak secondary.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet: Bears +9 Wong Teaser Piece
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
As previously mentioned, the Chicago Bears sit in Wong Teaser territory as they are currently a +3 underdog. That number was steamed up from the opener of +2 as bettors have backed the idea of the Packers in a must win situation. Reminder, teams who have already been eliminated cover the spread at a 61% rate as they are generally undervalued due to the situation.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate rate as they opened the number at 44. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the total, keeping the number the same since the opener. This is a tricky spot as the Bears offense should find more success while they give Jordan Love and company fits on the other end.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Key Injuries
The Packers skill players dominate the injury report as Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed are all listed as questionable.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Key Matchups
Can the Bears secondary slow down Jordan Love?
Bears Secondary Vs. Jordan Love
The big reason for the Packers turnaround has been from the improved play of their quarterback Jordan Love. After struggling with turnover worthy throws due to opposing pressure, Love has found his poise in the pocket and has started to hit his receivers in stride. His recent play has the Packers ranked fourth in Pass DVOA.
Jordan Love 🚀 Jayden Reed pic.twitter.com/FaZlaLGE8l
— PFF (@PFF) January 1, 2024
That may spell trouble for a Bears secondary who ranks 18th in Def Pass DVOA, yet Chicago’s secondary has done a great job at limiting the short throw by ranking 12th in Def Pass Success Rate. That forces Love to find more consistent success with the deep ball, a style of play that does not correlate with consistency. Factor in the Bears front four being a dominant run stopping unit and their linebackers may get the benefit of helping their secondary in coverage.