Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves (4/26/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

This is a blockbuster matchup.

These are two big-name brands in the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves. And, the two clubs are starting big-name pitchers in Chicago’s Marcus Stroman and Atlanta’s Max Fried.

We know the Braves are the better team, and they are heavy favorites because of it. But are we overlooking a Cubs team with veteran competence, the clubhouse leader for NL Rookie of the Year, and a former NL East starter?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for the game.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Odds

The Cubs are taking the smart money and the sharp money, moving this line their way from a bigger opener.

Chicago is clearly the smarter bet in this game, but is it the right side to take in Atlanta?

The total seems about right at 8, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move to 7.5. At that point, the over may be worth a look.

Chicago Cubs Starting Lineup

DH Rafael Ortega L
2B Nick Madrigal R
C Willson Contreras R
LF Ian Happ S
1B Frank Schwindel R
RF Seiya Suzuki R
CF Jason Heyward L
3B Pat Wisdom R
SS Nico Hoerner R

Chicago Cubs vs Max Fried

Fried continues to be one of the top southpaws in the game. He’s gotten a bit unlucky with his 3.50 ERA (.327 BABIP) but his FIP is way down at 1.53 and his xFIP is hanging below 2.4. He’s posted .8 fWAR through three six-inning starts and I’m expecting more from him.

But watch out for Seiya Suzuki. He’s walking over 20% of the time and it’s helped him accrue an OPS close to 1.200. He’ll see some regression, but he has a Bondsian-like discipline-power combination. It’s amazing what he’s doing.

The whole Cubs lineup has followed suit. Chicago is second in MLB in both wOBA (.347) and wOBACON (.403). It’ll be hard for Fried to shut down a team that’s this hot.

But for all that, the Cubs are just 7-9. The talent is there, but the upside might not be.

Atlanta Braves Starting Lineup

2B Ozzie Albies S
1B Matt Olson L
DH Marcell Ozuna R
CF Adam Duvall R
C Travis d’Arnaud R
LF Travis Demeritte R
SS Dansby Swanson R
RF Guillermo Heredia R
3B Orlando Arcia R

Atlanta Braves vs Marcus Stroman

With Stroman, what you see is what you get. He’s a soft-tossing pitcher that works in the zone to try and force ground balls.

Things have been a bit strange this season. Through three starts, Stroman’s strikeout rate is way up, but so his is walk rate. His 30% HR/FB rate would be double his career average stretched out over a full season, and his 50% ground ball rate is even a little low.

But, Stroman’s BABIP is high (.333) and his strand rate is absurdly low (44%), so there’s plenty of positive regression to come. That’s shown by his 3.31 xFIP.

I’m not sure if that will come against Atlanta. The Braves lineup is talented and due for a ton of positive regression. The Braves pair their .325 wOBA with a third-ranked .359 xwOBA, buoyed by a barrel rate that’s over 10%.

And if Stroman allows guys like Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, and others to barrel him up, this game will be over quick.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction

My pick: Over 7.5 or better

This number is dropping. If we get below 8, it’s an auto-over for me.

These are two offenses that are crushing the ball right now. Both are due for some level of positive regression as well.

Meanwhile, there are question marks with both pitchers and bullpens – specifically Stroman, who could get shelled today by the barrel-rocking Braves.