Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (7/6/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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The Cubs came into Milwaukee on a hot streak, after rattling off series wins over the Cardinals, Reds, and Red Sox. The Brewers held them in check on Monday night, however, and if anyone can send the Cubs right back to reality, it’s Corbin Burnes. Burnes will get the ball for the Brewers on Wednesday, while Adrian Sampson starts for Chicago as David Ross continues to patch together his rotation and get through this difficult season.
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Wednesday’s matchup.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds
The Brewers would be favorites over the Cubs under just about any circumstance, but they’re clear favorites at -225 on the money line with Burnes on the mound. The over/under is set at 7.5 as oddsmakers try to balance Burnes’ excellence with Sampson’s inexperience. Milwaukee isn’t a great offensive team, but this lineup has scored 5+ runs in 7 of its last 9 games – including a 19-run explosion against the Pirates. It shouldn’t take too much run support for Burnes to come out on top, and it would be a surprise if the Brewers didn’t score some runs.
Chicago Cubs Starting Lineup
A. Sampson R
0-0 3.38 ERA
CF R. Ortega L
DH W. Contreras R
LF I. Happ S
RF S. Suzuki R
SS N. Hoerner R
3B P. Wisdom R
C Y. Gomes R
1B A. Rivas L
2B C. Morel R
Chicago Cubs vs. Corbin Burnes
With Jacob deGrom out for the past year, it’s fair to say no pitcher has been better since 2020 than Corbin Burnes. The reigning NL Cy Young winner has a 2.35 ERA and a sparkling 2.17 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, averaging 12.3 K/9 with a 0.95 WHIP over that span. Burnes has a 2.36 ERA over 16 starts (99.1 IP) this season, with a 3.15 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, and an NL-best 124 strikeouts. His home run rate is elevated compared to the last two years – he’s already allowed 12 home runs this season after giving up 7 all of last year – but it hasn’t burned him badly.
One area the Cubs can take advantage of Burnes is walks. Burnes has walked multiple batters in 5 of his last 6 starts, and the Cubs are third in the NL in walks per game. If Burnes’ control isn’t all there, Chicago is patient enough to allow him to beat himself. There are a few reasons to believe in the Cubs’ offense, including rookie Christopher Morel, who has 3 home runs and a 1.188 OPS over his last 7 games. Few NL hitters have been hotter than Nico Hoerner lately – Hoerner is batting .451 over his last 14 games. Considering he’s been more home run prone, Burnes will have to watch for Patrick Wisdom. The notoriously streaky Wisdom has 3 home runs in his last 5 games. You might see a Cubs lineup finally putting it all together, or you might see a Cubs lineup due to come back down to earth. Against one of the game’s true aces, the latter is more likely.
Milwaukee Brewers Starting Lineup
C. Burnes R
7-4 2.36 ERA
LF C. Yelich L
SS W. Adames R
1B R. Tellez L
DH A. McCutchen R
2B K. Wong L
3B L. Urias R
C O. Narvaez L
RF J. Peterson L
CF J. Davis R
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Adrian Sampson
The Cubs’ staff has been beset by enough injuries that Adrian Sampson now has a regular spot in the rotation after being released by the Mariners in May. Signed by Chicago days later and called up less than a month ago, Sampson has a 3.38 ERA across 16 innings this season, with a 2.74 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, and a 14:3 K:BB ratio. Sampson’s longest major-league stint came in 2019, when he had an ugly 5.89 ERA over 125.1 innings with the Rangers. The early numbers look good this year, but he was hit hard by the Red Sox in his last start for 8 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) over 5.1 innings.
The Brewers are hitting just .237 as a team, 22nd in baseball, but they hit home runs more than any team in the NL other than the Braves. Home runs mean runs, and the Brewers have hit plenty of them recently. Milwaukee has 15 home runs over its last 7 games, including 3 from both Luis Urias and Rowdy Tellez. Though the Brewers are nearly an identical offensive team at home as they are on the road, a home matchup against a journeyman pitcher is a great situation. Beyond the obvious home run potential, Sampson will have to watch for Andrew McCutchen, who’s come back to life with a .330 AVG over the last month, and Christian Yelich, who is hitting .312 over his last 16 games.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Prediction
My pick: Brewers -1.5 (-105)
The Brewers are 8-2 in Corbin Burnes’ last 10 starts, though they’ve lost both of his starts against the Cubs this season – largely due to a lack of run support. The Brewers have been seeing the ball well lately and have an appetizing home matchup with Adrian Sampson. I don’t see the Cubs making it to 3-0 against Burnes on the year. It’s tough to gauge an over/under for this matchup, especially without seeing much of Sampson yet this season. Burnes should keep runs to a minimum, but he’s had a few shaky starts in between his signature dominant outings. Don’t fall into the trap of believing he’s an automatic seven shutout innings.
