Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees (6/10/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

The New York Yankees are inevitable. They just became the first team to 40 wins, and now sit 24 games over .500 a third into the season. They have a solid 6.5-game lead in the tough AL East, but their +101 Run Differential says they should be further ahead.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are living up to their pre-season expectations. The Cubbies are a poor baseball team, led by one of the worst rotations in baseball. Chicago is 10 games under .500, nine games back of the NL Central lead, and is only 3.5 games up for last place in the division.

So, do the Cubs have even the slightest shot to keep up with the Yanks in this one?

Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Friday matchup.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Odds

Vegas doesn’t think so. The Yankees are -250 favorites while the Cubs are north of +200 on the ML. When I see an underdog as big as this one, I automatically look their way.

But can we trust Wade Miley? And is Luis Severino fade material?

The total looks right at 8.5, although it’s worth mentioning the wind is blowing straight out to center field at 7mph.

Chicago Cubs Starting Lineup

CF C. Morel R
C W. Contreras R
LF I. Happ S
1B F. Schwindel R
3B P. Wisdom R
DH R. Ortega L
SS N. Hoerner R
RF J. Heyward L
2B N. Madrigal R

Chicago Cubs vs Luis Severino

It’s nice seeing Severino healthy and performing well again. He’s managed 55 innings over 10 starts this season, doing all of it with an ERA south of 3.00.

After back-to-back injury mangled years, Severino needs this for his confidence.

Severino’s xERA is actually down at 2.60. This is surprising, given his batted ball statistics aren’t exceedingly good. His strikeouts are way down, although his whiff rate is still elite (84th percentile).

You’ll see a four-seam fastball about half the time, with a changeup, slider, and cutter mixed in. It’s been a mixed bag between the four, with his four-seam and slider dominating hitters but his changeup and cutter get rocked.

The Cubs have the fifth-highest Weighted Fastball Runs Created mark this season (22.4), which should scare Sevvy slightly. Chicago is terrible against cutters, however, so maybe we’ll see more mixed in on Friday.

The Cubs are a league-average offense, but Seiya Suzuki is still hurt, leaving a hole in the heart of the lineup. But since Suzuki got hurt, the Cubs have a 122 wRC+ and top-10 marks in every offensive category.

Interesting.

New York Yankees Starting Lineup

2B DJ LeMahieu R
CF A. Judge R
1B A. Rizzo L
DH G. Stanton R
3B J. Donaldson R
LF A. Hicks S
SS I. Kiner-Falefa R
C J. Trevino R
RF J. Gallo L

New York Yankees vs Wade Miley

Miley has been the only reliable option on the Cubs staff. Both Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman have ERAs over 5.00, and there aren’t many other options worth turning to (Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson have shown promise as young prospects).

The bullpen has carried the Cubs so far. Chicago has the lowest reliever xFIP of any team in the majors, which is flabbergasting considering the roster.

Anyway, Miley has an ERA, xERA, and FIP in the low-3.00s. He has yet to allow a home run this season, which is rather surprising considering the Cubs play at Wrigley.

But it’s also an indicator of regression. Miley has a BABIP of .250 to go along with zero home runs, and his xFIP is up at 4.20 because of it. His numbers are going to skyrocket soon.

But Miley continues to chug along with a ground-ball rate above 50%. That’s pretty good, and could be important against a hard-hitting team like the Yankees.

The Yankees lead the league in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and avg. exit velocity. And the second-place teams in each category are not particularly close. The Yanks have also kept pace, posting the fifth-highest wRC+ over the last two weeks (127).

Aaron Judge is setting the world on fire with his 1.058 OPS and MLB-leading 22 home runs. There’s a chance the AL MVP race is already locked up.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Pick & Prediction

My picks: Chicago Cubs ML (+215 at WynnBet Sportsbook)

There’s some small value on the Cubbies in this spot. Keep your play small, but getting better than 2-to-1 odds in this spot is too good to pass up.

If Miley can keep his ground-ball rate up and the Cubs bullpen can keep posting shutdown performances, the Yankees could be in for a long day – even if the Bronx Bombers have been unbeatable.

It’ll be tough to get past Luis Severino, but this line is disrespecting the Cubs lineup as a whole. For example, Willson Contreras has an OPS+ north of 160, and Ian Happ’s OPS+ is north of 130.

Take the value with the Cubbies here. This line should be closer to +150.