Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (6/4/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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The Chicago White Sox just keep losing games, much to the chagrin of their fans. The Southsiders just got swept by the Blue Jays in Toronto, losing the last two games by a final score of 15-6.
Meanwhile, the Rays just keep winning, as they always do. Tampa Bay just took two of three from both the Rangers and Yankees – two of the hottest teams in the league – and remains just a half-game back of Toronto for the top Wildcard spot.
The red-hot Dylan Cease will take the mound for the White Sox, who is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He’ll face the always steady Drew Rasmussen, who constantly vacillates from the starting rotation to the bullpen.
Who has the edge?
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Saturday’s battle.
Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds
At home, the Rays should always be favored. Tampa Bay is 17-11 at The Trop this season, and it’s so hard to take a series from the uber-smart Rays in Florida.
But with Dylan Cease on the mound, you have to wonder if the White Sox are slightly undervalued. He’s had two blowup starts in his last four games that have inflated his ERA, but he can still mow down anyone in his path.
The 6.5 total seems low, but totals under 7 this season are 16-15 to the over, with 13 of the last 24 totals this low going over.
Chicago White Sox Starting Lineup
CF L. Robert R
LF A. Vaughn R
1B J. Abreu R
3B J. Burger R
C Y. Grandal S
RF AJ Pollock R
DH G. Sheets L
SS D. Mendick R
2B J. Harrison R
Chicago White Sox vs Drew Rasmussen
The Rays are 8-2 in Rasmussen games this season. Because he rarely makes mistakes, allowing more than three earned in just one start.
That start was his last one, where he allowed five runs over three innings against the Rangers. That ballooned his ERA from 2.68 to 3.47 on the season, which isn’t representative of the season Rasmussen is having.
One thing to note: The Rays will not push Rasmussen. He’s managed a good amount of innings this season, but he will never eclipse 90 pitches. As a result, it’s wise to stay away from his strikeout totals.
Rasmussen has one of the better cutters you’ve seen, a pitch he just started throwing this season. His 2595rpm avg. spin rate is better than 96% of qualified pitchers. He then backs that up with a similarly spinny slider which drops off the face of the Earth.
Drew Rasmussen, Wicked 85mph Slider. 🤢
4Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/j1Sn8A3ud1— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 18, 2022
On the season so far, the White Sox are the third-worst team in both weighted fastball runs created (-19.3) and weighted slider runs created (-16.1). They could be in trouble today.
The White Sox offense has done nothing but underperform this season. They’ve bounced back slightly, but now their best hitter – Tim Anderson – is hurt. It’s not looking good for the Southsiders, who are now behind both Cleveland and Minnesota in the standings.
Tampa Bay Rays Starting Lineup
CF K. Kiermaier L
RF M. Margot R
1B Y. Diaz R
DH J. Choi L
LF R. Arozarena R
C M. Zunino R
SS T. Walls S
3B I. Paredes R
2B V. Brujan S
Tampa Bay Rays vs Dylan Cease
Cease is so fun to watch. He’s got a fastball that sits around 97mph – often higher – and has some of the better rising action in the league. He pounds the strike zone, and he ranks above the 90th percentile in Whiff rate as a result.
Dylan Cease, Elevated 99mph ⛽️
And, Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/dOnun8KSSu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2022
Due to his recent blowup starts (6 ER vs NYY, 7 ER vs BOS), his 3.69 ERA isn’t fair. He has a 2.62 xERA and a 2.87 FIP, and he has already recorded 1.3 fWAR this season. If you look at his Baseball Savant page, you understand just how good this guy is.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Over the past two weeks, the Rays have had the lowest wRC+ of any team in MLB (82). Expand that to the last month, and the Rays have the fourth-lowest wRC+ of any team in MLB (87). This team is not seeing the ball well recently.
But it’s tough when both Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe are hurt. Ji-Man Choi has been lighting the world on fire with his 150 OPS+, and he had the game-winning single the other night. Since May 15, Choi is slugging .478 with 10 RBIs in 14 games.
Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction
My picks: Chicago White Sox ML (+100 at Fox Bet Sportsbook), Chicago White Sox First Five Innings ML (-115 or better)
It feels like I’m falling into a trap betting on the White Sox again. But I can’t help it.
Cease is the better pitcher and is due for a dominant performance against a slumping, shorthanded Rays lineup. The White Sox are also shorthanded and haven’t been hitting much better, but their 96 wRC+ is at least competitive.
I’d also look at the First Five Innings ML when those lines come out. The Rays always have an advantage in the bullpen, and I can see the White Sox up 1-0 at the halfway mark with their ace on the mound.
Bet the F5 ML up to about -115.
