Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (6/1/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
Contents
The Chicago White Sox travel north of the border this week to take on the Toronto Blue Jays.
Entering this series, the White Sox have underperformed. They’re five games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central – the Twins were +600 to win that division pre-season – and sit at 23-23. Chicago is also just 5-5 in the last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are playing great but are struggling to make up ground on the Yankees. Toronto has won five straight games, however, and is back in the Wildcard picture.
The White Sox need some more wins, but it’ll be tough to take down the Jays at the Rogers Centre, where Toronto is 14-8 this season.
Where does the value lie?
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Wednesday matchup.
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
The White Sox could be slightly undervalued at +120 or better.
Hyun Jin Ryu has been disappointing since coming to Toronto from L.A. And the White Sox lineup is likely due for some positive regression.
Meanwhile, Michael Kopech has a stunning 1.29 ERA through his first eight starts this season. He has some negative regression coming, but how much?
Chicago White Sox Starting Lineup
CF L. Robert R
LF A. Vaughn R
1B J. Abreu R
3B J. Burger R
C Y. Grandal S
RF AJ Pollock R
DH G. Sheets L
SS D. Mendick R
2B J. Harrison R
Chicago White Sox vs Hyun Jin Ryu
It was just three years ago that Ryu pitched 182 innings of 2.32 ERA ball. He overperformed that season, but really only slightly. His 30.8% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate meant he left very little room for hitters to dominate him.
This season, his strikeout rate is down to 12.4%, and his avg. exit velocity allowed is on pace for a career-high 91.4mph. Not only does he allow more room for error, but hitters are also crushing those errors.
In 2019, Ryu was a changeup-heavy pitcher, and he posted a -24 Run Value on the pitch that season. Since coming to Toronto, he’s gotten away from that.
He’s become a four-seam heavy pitcher, and his fastball sucks. Hitters are slugging .667 off Ryu’s four-seam this season with a .838 xSLG and a 48.1% hard-hit rate. Yet he continues to throw it more and more.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
If the Toronto pitching staff is pushing Ryu to throw the fastball more, that’s pitching malpractice. He had a five-pitch mix that he used in his own way and became a dominant pitcher. Now, he’s nothing more than a replacement-level fastball pitcher.
The White Sox need to take advantage. But they’re third-to-last this season in weighted fastball runs created, with -16.2.
Perhaps because the White Sox are still not hitting the ball in the air. They’re still among the bottom five MLB teams in avg. launch angle (10.4-degrees). They’re hitting the ball hard, but the White Sox can’t get fastballs out of the infield on seeing-eye singles alone.
The White Sox are in trouble either way. Tim Anderson is now hurt and Dallas Kuechel was finally dropped. Things are bad on the Southside.
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Lineup
CF G. Springer R
SS B. Bichette R
1B V. Guerrero R
RF T. Hernandez R
DH A. Kirk R
LF L. Gurriel R
3B M. Chapman R
C D. Jansen R
2B S. Espinal R
Toronto Blue Jays vs Michael Kopech
It’s been an awesome season for Kopech, but this is not sustainable.
His 1.29 ERA is entirely supported by a .167 BABIP. His avg. exit velocity allowed is league-average, and while his xERA is still only 2.70, Kopech is not as good as he’s been performing.
Kopech has also struggled with control. His walk rate is now up to 11.8%, and he’s walking over four batters per nine innings. A pitcher who allows that many guys on base can’t be as dominant as Jacob deGrom over the course of a full season.
Expect a four-seam fastball 65.5% of the time from Kopech. For what it’s worth, that fastball has held hitters to just a .293 xSLG with a -9 Run Value. Again, there are some overvalued statistics surrounding that pitch, but it’s been very solid nonetheless.
You’ll be surprised to hear the Blue Jays don’t smash fastballs. They’ve posted -0.9 weighted fastball runs created so far this season.
However, the Blue Jays still hit the ball harder than anyone except the Yankees. They trail only the Yankees in Hard-Hit rate (43.5%) and avg. exit velocity (90.1mph).
George Springer might be a Hall of Famer. He’s been so good for so long, and he currently leads Toronto in OPS+ this season (151). He’s got nine home runs and a team-leading 26 RBIs out of the leadoff spot.
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction
My pick: Chicago White Sox ML (+116 at FanDuel)
I just don’t trust Ryu at all. Especially if he continues to throw middle-high fastballs.
Plus, Chicago continues to take sharp money. This line has been pushed down after it reached +122 shortly after the line opened. The White Sox at plus-money with a dominant Kopech on the mound is the play.
