Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders player prop picks & odds for the (11/26/23) matchup.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Picks
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders kicks off this Sunday at 4:25pm EST in Las Vegas Nevada as a home game for the Raiders. The Chiefs are currently a -8.5 favorite and -420 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Isiah Pacheco and Patrick Mahomes are poised for a big game while Josh Jacobs carries a heavy workload, all giving value as player props for this Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders matchup.
Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
When Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback, you can expect to see plenty of stretched out linebacking units to the benefit of the ground game. That is exactly what lead back Isiah Pacheco can expect to experience in this game against the Raiders defense, getting the ability to gash a weak Raiders front seven as he bursts through the gaps in the trenches.
While the Raiders defense has steadily improved at defending the pass, their rush defense has yet to follow suit as they still grade out very poorly across the board. As of writing, the Raiders front seven currently ranks 21st in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush EPA, 25th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 29th in Adjusted Line Yards. This is in large part of a weak front four, only possessing one consistent productive player in Maxx Crosby on the edge.
The Chiefs rush metrics don’t grade out much better, but opting into a heavier dose of the pass off the arm of Mahomes plays a major factor in their lack of ground game. With the spread implying that this is a potential comfortable Chiefs win, expect to see a heavier run game script in an attempt to bleed the clock late in the game.
Isiah Pacheco Over 14.5 Rush Attempts
This prop is heavily correlated to the previously mentioned one as Isiah Pacheco is in a position to receive a heavy workload as the Chiefs cruise to a victory. Especially if Mahomes continues to struggle as he has had a hard time connecting with his underwhelming group of receivers over the past few games.
Drops have plagued this offense as of late, potentially being the difference of a win in their last game against the Eagles. To counteract stalled out performances from their mishaps through the air, head coach Andy Reid may use the ground game to help set up easier passing lanes for their pass attack.
Backup running back Jerick McKinnon has also been ruled out due to injury, potentially feeding into Pacheco’s usage. This number is also vastly different depending which sportsbook you look at, being listed as high as 16.5. It’s important to always use as many books as you can in an attempt to take the best number available.
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interception
Patrick Mahomes turnover worthy tendencies have been ticking back up after a relatively efficient season last year, now throwing five picks in his last five games. Sportsbooks have juiced this prop towards the under, indicating that the skid stops here against an improved Raiders secondary.
Here’s how close Jalen Carter came to intercepting Patrick Mahomes on Monday night and here’s what he had to say about it:
“I saw it on the internet, I’ve seen it on YouTube, some high school kid tried, and he actually caught the ball,” Carter told reporters. “I thought, ‘That’s… pic.twitter.com/jMrqs9vRqK
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 21, 2023
I tend to agree as the game script may call for a heavier dose of the run which eats away at Mahomes pass attempts. This will help stack the opposing defense, opening up higher quality passing lanes for Mahomes to exploit. Especially when Mahomes is expected to play in a relatively clean pocket as the Raiders clock in at 29th in Pressure and 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate.
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown
If there was ever a time for Josh Jacobs to start getting it going after a slow start to the year, then it would be against this Kansas City defense who has struggled to defend the run. After running wild last year, Jacobs has been relatively quiet by only rushing for 661 yards and five touchdowns.
He now gets the chance to exploit a Chiefs front seven who ranks a lowly 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 30th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 31st in Def Rush EPA. With the spread implying that the Raiders will be playing from behind, they will need to maximize on their scoring opportunities and feeding it to their lead back inside the 10 is their best option to do so. Especially with having a rookie under center, potentially avoiding ill-advised turnovers.