Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (11/26/23)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders kicks off this Sunday (11/26/23) at 4:25pm EST in Las Vegas Nevada as a home game for the Raiders. Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on Chiefs -2.5 as a Wong Teaser piece.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Best Bet

Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong, last week for the Chiefs as an interception in the end zone and dropped balls lead to their four-point loss against the Philadelphia Eagles. The rush defense looked improved, but their post first half scoring struggles have continued as they were held scoreless in the second half.

That instantly puts the Chiefs in a prime bounce back spot against a division foe as they thoroughly outclass the Raiders on both sides of the ball. Especially when on offense, as Patrick Mahomes gets the benefit of a clean pocket due to the Raiders inability to create pressure. Las Vegas only possesses one true pass rusher, leaving Maxx Crosby on an island with no help on the other end. That makes it easy for opposing offensive lines to scheme against, resulting in a Pressure Rate that ranks 29th in the league.

With a clean pocket, Mahomes should have no issue with moving the ball down the field against an improving Raiders secondary. This was a major weakness early in the season for the Raiders, now currently ranking 14th in Def Pass DVOA, 11th in Def Pass EPA, and 15th in Def Pass Success Rate. The issue is that the lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks may still give their secondary fits as they can only sit in coverage for so long before wideouts get the upper hand. Especially against Travis Kelce as he is elite at exploiting the gaps in coverage.

As for how the Chiefs defense grades out in this contest, they are in a great position to limit the Raiders offensive production as they boast an elite coverage unit and an improving rush defense. While the Def Rush DVOA still clocks in at 27th, the Def Pass DVOA has remained in the top-5 by clocking in at third best in the league. The rush defense is especially vital as they now take on Josh Jacobs, one of the better running backs in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 Teaser Piece

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds

The spread has seen a drastic increase from the look ahead line, originally opening at -5 and now sitting at -8.5. Bettors have managed to take this up to as high as -9.5 but it has been bet back down to -8.5 as of writing. It’s a common rule of thumb to avoid betting the Chiefs at -7 or higher, making them a prime Wong Teaser piece and getting them at -2.5 instead.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 45. Bettors believe that points will come at a slightly slower pace, backing the under down to as low as 43 in some shops. This sits at a key number, making it intriguing to see if the under will continue to take action and break through to 42 before kickoff.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Key Injuries

The Chiefs come into this contest fairly healthy while the Raiders injury report currently has Maxx Crosby, Robert Spillane, and Marcus Epps listed as questionable.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Key Matchups

Can Isiah Pacheco continue to run wild against a weak Vegas front seven?

Isiah Pacheco Vs. Raiders Front Seven

While the Raiders pass defense has steadily improved since the start of the season, their rush defense has yet to follow suit. As of writing, the Raiders front seven currently ranks 21st in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush EPA, and 25th in Def Rush Success Rate.

That puts Chiefs lead back Isiah Pacheco in a good position to succeed as he can burst through the gaps in the trenches and hit the open field for chunks at a time. Through his rushing production, the Raiders second level will be forced to anchor in position and create gaps for Mahomes to exploit through the air. With success coming from both facets of the offense, the Chiefs are in a position to set a scoring pace too fast for the Raiders to keep up with.

Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Isiah Pacheco
RB2: Jerick McKinnon
LWR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
RWR: Rashee Rice
SWR: Skyy Moore
TE1: Travis Kelce

Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart

QB: Aidan O’Connell
RB1: Josh Jacobs
RB2: Ameer Abdullah
LWR: Davante Adams
RWR: Jakobi Meyers
SWR: Hunter Renfrow
TE1: Michael Mayer

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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