The Minnesota Vikings host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday (10/8/23). In this article, find a full preview for this matchup and the latest betting odds. In addition, find a breakdown of our prediction which is over 52.5 points.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
The Chiefs are coming off a scare on Sunday Night Football as they escaped with a 3-point road win over the Jets. Kansas City’s offense has been hit or miss to start this season – they scored 41 points against the Bears but are averaging just 18 offensive points per game in their other three contests.
This matchup provides an opportunity for a bounceback as the Vikings rank 19th in overall defensive DVOA and 21st against the pass. Concerningly, they are just 28th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL. Blitzing Patrick Mahomes is a recipe for disaster, especially when those blitzes aren’t getting home, as I break down below.
Minnesota enters this game on the heels of their first win of the season after three frustrating one-score losses to open the year. Kirk Cousins currently ranks top ten in both PFF passing grade and yards per attempt, and while he’s not in the same tier as Mahomes, he’s capable of pushing his team to points here.
I don’t see much value in this game from a pre-flop perspective. The Vikings have been somewhat unlucky with their record to start the season, and they are the kings of playing in one-score games, but that’s not enough for me to be confident in backing them as short home dogs. Instead, I’d play the over for now and look to bet the Vikings at +7 or better live.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction: Over 52.5 Points
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
The Chiefs could be found as high as 5.5 or 5-point favorites earlier in the week at some shops, but sharp money has hit the Vikings throughout the week, pushing the line down to the current 3.5 points. While 3 is the most key number in football, 4 is also very important, so keep that in mind when placing your wagers.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Minnesota Vikings Key Injuries
Both teams enter this game mostly healthy. Chiefs’ linebacker Nick Bolton is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. So too is Vikings’ edge rusher Marcus Davenport, and his absence would hamper Minnesota’s already questionable ability to get pressure without blitzing.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Minnesota Vikings Key Matchups
When the Chiefs travel to face the Vikings on Sunday, there are some fascinating players to break down. Let’s take a look at some of the key matchups that will determine the winner of what should be a great game.
Patrick Mahomes Vs. Vikings’ Blitz
If there’s one thing you don’t want to do against Patrick Mahomes, it’s blitzing him. He’s elite at buying time in the pocket with his legs and running the scramble drill. That should be fascinating here as the Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate but rank 28th in pressure rate – they bring extra rushers and still can’t get home.
The Chiefs have an elite offensive line that leads the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed, and it’s unlikely that Mahomes will face a significant amount of pressure in this game. Will Flores adjust his team’s game plan? Or will his stubbornness cost this team as he leaves his defensive backs in bad situations?
Justin Jefferson Vs. Chiefs’ Cornerbacks
We’re running out of new ways to talk about how dominant Justin Jefferson is, but it was fascinating to learn that he has more receiving yards and touchdowns than all of the Chiefs’ wide receivers combined. This season, Jefferson already has 33 catches for 543 yards and three touchdowns through four games, registering career highs with 16.5 yards per reception and 3.25 yards per route run.
Jefferson primarily plays on the perimeter, so he’ll be matched up with L’Jarius Sneed, who lined up across from Garrett Wilson on 24 snaps last week and allowed just two catches for 20 yards on six targets. The Chiefs