Chris Carson Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

Chris Carson is coming off a monster season for the Seahawks in 2018. It was a knee injury that caused him to only play 14 games, but in those 14 games he put up an impressive 1,151 rushing yards on 247 attempts. His 1,151 yards put him at 5th in the NFL, which makes one wonder where he’d be if he had played a full 16 games. He had 9 TDs last year which had him tied for 7th in the NFL. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry on his 247 attempts.

PFF tweeted out the above statistic which lends itself to the narrative of Chris Carson being an explosive back. He has the potential to one-up himself from just a year before, and I don’t see a reason he wouldn’t do it. I think players start to enter their peak in their third season just because it’s the perfect amount of experience crossed with being very young and nimble. Even though at Lineups we have Carson listed as RB23, he’s in the above graphic with big-name RBs like Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. I’m not saying that because of one stat he’s all of a sudden elite, but he’s certainly not too far off.

We currently have Carson projected for 1,064.4 rushing yards on 238.4 attempts. That’s a pretty hard prediction to beat, but I don’t think he’ll have a problem at least getting close to that number, barring injury. We also have him projected for 7.6 rushing TDs.

FPTS 2018 GP ATT RU YDS YDS/ATT ATT/G 100+ YDS RU TD REC TGTS/G REC YDS REC TD Yahoo FPTS/G
185.4 14 247 1,151 4.7 17.6 6 9 20 1.7 163 0 13.67

A ceiling for Carson feels exactly like what his season was last year. He was very effective in Seattle’s offense, but personally, I don’t see him all of a sudden getting more looks this year. The good news, though, is that I don’t see his floor being very low this year. He’s solidified enough in the Seahawks’ schemes that he won’t flop unless he reinsures his knee. He’s going to be a solid get whenever you can grab him.

Seattle SeahawksHis average draft position is currently 5.05. Getting him there is a steal, in my opinion, so I would suggest doing so without a doubt. His auction value is another steal at $14 out of $200. At RBs of his caliber, this is the best deal you’re going to get. We have Carson currently rated at RB23. Just one spot ahead of him is Aaron Jones who sits at an auction value of $29. For similar production, you’ll get Carson for $15 cheaper, which to me is a no-brainer.

Another interesting stat to look at is most broken tackles in 2018. Carson was third with 61, behind just Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Barkley had an astounding 94 and McCaffrey had 63. It’s stats like these that really highlight how criminally underrated Carson is. 2019 could be a breakout year for the young RB, or, at the worst he could have a repeat of 2018 which certainly wouldn’t leave any fantasy owner distraught.

  
After suffering a career ending injury as a high school freshman B-team quarterback, Emmett has completely devoted himself to sports fandom. A Chicago (suburb) native, he is loyal to all his teams. He is currently a junior at Chapman University in Southern California and thoroughly enjoys Microsoft Excel.

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