Christian McCaffrey NFL Player Props & Picks (10/23/23) Vs. Vikings

The San Francisco 49ers face the Minnesota Vikings in Monday Night Football (10/23/23). Get Christian McCaffrey player prop best bets and odds below.

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Christian McCaffrey Under 96.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 Bet365)

McCaffrey’s oblique injury may cause two scenarios. First, it’s entirely feasible that it affects his performance on the field. Obliques control bending and twisting at the torso, so McCaffrey likely won’t have his typical shiftiness and ability to worm his way through tiny gaps. Second, San Francisco understands they must have him healthy for the playoffs due to his game-breaking talent. No team understands playoff health more than San Francisco, who lost Brock Purdy to injury and essentially forfeited the NFC Championship game last year as a result.  Therefore, Kyle Shanahan likely has him on a snap count, especially if the game isn’t close. Given San Francisco’s clear edge over Minnesota, this probably occurs. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings have allowed the ninth fewest scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs. They are relatively strong up front, but it’s also because their secondary is being routinely gashed. Opponents are easily moving the ball through the air, thus compromising running back stats. 

Based on the odds, McCaffrey must top out at 96 yards about 53 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Christian McCaffrey First Touchdown (+410 BetRivers)

San Francisco has scored the first touchdown in every game so far, and they lead the NFL by scoring a touchdown on 83.3 percent of their opening drives. The Vikings are still a decent threat to score without Justin Jefferson, but San Francisco is heavily favored. Their defense ranks 6th in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score, while their offense ranks 2nd in percentage of drives ending in an offensive score. 

Entering the week, McCaffrey led the league in red zone carries, which doesn’t even account for his massive receiving volume. He possesses nine touchdowns through six games, and he’s tied for the most first touchdowns scored at three. 

Minnesota has only allowed two touchdowns to running backs all year, and McCaffrey is dealing with an oblique injury. However, he’s simply a must play at +410 odds given his combination of usage and talent. At those odds, he needs to score first about 19 percent of the time.

Kyle Juszczyk Anytime Touchdown (+1100 FD)

Although it’s not strictly a McCaffrey prop, it’s related to his injury. If the 49ers find themselves one or two yards away from the end zone, they may decide against throwing McCaffrey into the scrum due to his injury. Therefore, the 236 pound fullback would be an excellent alternative because he has the size and strength to fight through the trenches. Juszczyk is the only player besides McCaffrey to record an inside the five yard line carry for San Francisco, and the 49ers could have him punch it into the end zone here to spare McCaffrey. 

He needs to score about 8 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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