Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals kicks off this Sunday at 4:05pm EST in Phoenix Arizona as a home game for the Cardinals. The Bengals are currently a -3 favorite and -162 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44.5. With both teams poised to clear the over, expect plenty of production for the likes of Joe Mixon, James Conner, and Ja’Marr Chase as valuable player props in this Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals matchup.
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The Bengals offense can only go as far as Joe Burrow can take them and at the moment that doesn’t seem very far. It’s apparent Burrow is playing on one leg, turning into a quick read quarterback with the inability to lengthen the play by scrambling. Luckily for Burrow, the Cardinals defense is as bad as it gets and generates little to no pressure in the backfield. This may give the opportunity for their skill players to succeed, bringing the Bengals offense back to life.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
The thought of the Bengals suddenly turning around their pass attack is not exactly settling on the stomach, but they are in as good a position as any to find success against the Cardinals defense. Arizona currently ranks 27th in Def Pass EPA, 30th in Def Pass Success, and 28th in Def Pass DVOA.
Better yet for the Bengals, the big advantage comes from the Cardinals lack of ability to send pressure into the backfield. They rank 27th in Pressure and 28th in Blitz, meaning Joe Burrow will find himself with precious extra seconds in the pocket.
That extra time directly correlates to his star receiver Ja’Marr Chase, getting extra time in the open field to break free and create separation. Especially as his first read as Burrow has been reduced to a one read quarterback while dealing with his injury.
Factor in Tee Higgins dealing with an injury and extra targets may be spread around to Chase and Tyler Boyd should Higgins not be able to give it a go. Chase is one of the best downfield receivers in the NFL and this is a great chance to remind everyone what this Bengals pass attack is capable of.
Joe Mixon o68.5 Rushing Yards
A direct causality to Burrow being unable to generate passing production, Joe Mixon has started the season with an underwhelming performance as he deals with stacked boxes. With no threat of a pass attack, opposing defenses have been able to cheat by going all in on limiting the ground game.
Joe Mixon celebrated his first TD of the season with the fans 🙌 pic.twitter.com/N3AEm7RBs6
With Joe Burrow being in a good position to round back into form through the air, the Cardinals will have no choice but to spread out their coverage. This opens up the field for Joe Mixon to exploit, racking up chunks at a time in an effort to clear this over. Factor them being a slight favorite and we may see an uptick in the run should they have a lead late in the game as well.
Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown
While not the biggest fan of taking the heaviest favorite in this market, it’s worth highlighting that this prop can be found at drastically different listed odds. He’s as high as -170 and as low as -120 pending where you look, being a prime example of why it is so crucial to have multiple sportsbooks in order to get the best available number. This is a massive difference in odds, potentially saving yourself from tying up an extra $50 between the difference of the two.
As for the prop itself, Mixon is in a great position to cash this as he is the Bengals three down back and features a heavy workload in the red zone. Especially with the Bengals offense expected to bounce back, giving Mixon the benefit of more scoring opportunities as they move down the field.
James Conner Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
While nearly everybody expected the Cardinals to be one of the worst teams in football, no one predicted that this offense would be playing at a near above average rate. Joshua Dobbs has kept this unit competitive through the air while James Conner has hit the ground running from the backfield.
They are in a position to go score for score with the Bengals as Cincinnati’s defense has struggled out the gate. Throw out their dominant performance against a weak Rams offensive line and this unit has played at a near league worst rate. WIth below average marks across the board in rush defense metrics, James Conner will be in a position to hit the open field as he slashes through the defense.