Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview (10/11/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
The 1-2-1 Cincinnati Bengals travel to Baltimore to take on the 3-1 Ravens in an AFC North showdown, the first meeting between the two teams. Burrow, who set a rookie record for consecutive 300-yard passing games, picked up his first win as an NFL quarterback in week three against the Jaguars. Meanwhile, Baltimore rebounded nicely from their ugly loss against Kansas City in week three to beat the Washington Football Team 31-17 this past Sunday. Baltimore looks to keep pace with the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Bengals look to steal one from the reigning division champions in an upset that would even back up their wins and losses. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, October 11th, 2020
Time: 12:00 PM CT
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV Coverage: CBS
Bengals vs. Ravens Live Stream
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Cincinnati Bengals: Carlos Dunlap (NIR) Q, Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) Q, Geno Atkins (shoulder) Q, Darius Philips (NIR) Q, Jonah Williams (shoulder) Q, Logan Wilson (concussion) Q
Baltimore Ravens: Nick Boyle (thigh) Q, Calais Campbell (NIR) Q, Lamar Jackson (knee) Q, Marcus Peters (thigh) Q, Tyre Phillips (shoulder) Q, Jimmy Smith (knee) Q, Broderick Washington (illness) Q, Marquise Brown (knee) Q, Anthony Levine (abdomen) Q, Chris Moore (thigh/finger) Q, Ronnie Stanley (shoulder) Q, Justin Madubuike (knee) Q, Derek Wolfe (elbow) Q
Cincinnati Bengals Analysis
After a combined point-differential of negative eight while going 0-2-1 in their first three games, Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally picked up their first win of the season in week four against Jacksonville. With a final score of 33-25, the Bengals bring their season point-differential to 0, on pace for a vast improvement over their 2019 point differential of -141.
After a lackluster performance in week one, Joe Burrow has averaged over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns per game in each of the past three weeks. In fact, Joe Burrow is the first NFL rookie ever to throw three consecutive games of 300 or more passing yards. Even more important was the emergence of Joe Mixon in the running game in week four. After failing to find the end zone and averaging just over three yards per carry in the first three weeks, Mixon put up a buck-fifty and two on the ground in addition to his touchdown and 30 yards through the air. Perhaps the most concerning component has been the offensive line. In addition to their struggles with the running game through the first three games, they’ve allowed an alarming amount of pressure on rookie Joe Burrow and have given up the second-most sacks in the league. Week four was a promising improvement, however, only allowing one sack and opening up massive running lanes for the aforementioned Joe Mixon.
While Joe Burrow may receive most of the attention, the improvement in the defense is likely the reason they’ve looked much more competitive. After giving up the eighth-most points in the NFL in 2019, the Bengals defense is right around league average in terms of points allowed. Even a few of the peripheral stats suggest the Bengals defense has improved. They’re dead-center in the league in terms of their opponents’ third-down conversion percentage, and they’ve given up the eighth-lowest touchdown percentage in the red zone. The additions of free agents D.J. Reader, Josh Bynes, and Mackensie Alexander have added much needed playmaking on the defensive side of the ball. However, one of their weaknesses is against the run, which is Baltimore’s bread-and-butter. If Cincinnati wants to prevent losing by multiple scores as the betting lines suggests they will, they’ll need to find a way to slow down the Ravens’ running game.
Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
Baltimore Ravens Analysis
The only blemish on the Ravens season thus far is their dud against the Chiefs, losing to the reigning champs 34-20 in week three on Monday Night Football, which raised questions about their ability to play from behind. Otherwise, the Ravens have used more or less the same formula to beat their other three opponents by a combined score of 102-39.
Offensively, the Ravens are continuing to win by dominating the running game. Currently, they’re second to only the Browns in the NFL in terms of average rushing yards per attempt. Combine this with their efficient passing and the Ravens are the seventh-highest scoring team in the NFL through week four. Lamar Jackson has completed 67 of his 98 pass attempts for 769 yards, seven touchdowns, and just one interception. He’s also their leader rusher with 235 yards on 39 carries to go along with one touchdown on the ground, possibly speaking more about lack of balance between their three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards. Marquise Brown leads the team in receiving, having caught 16 passes for 242 yards on the season.
The Ravens once again look like one of the better defensive units in the NFL. They’re tied for the third most takeaways at seven, are in the upper-half in terms of yards-per-play, are tied for the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and are near the middle of the league in terms of their opponents’ third-down conversion percentage. Ultimately, that leaves them with the fourth-lowest allowed points per game at 18.2. One area of criticism might be Baltimore’s inability to create pressure on the quarterback, as they’re currently in the bottom half of the league in sacks as well as their quarterback pressures per drop-back. With the line and over-under, the implied point total for the Bengals is just shy of 19, which is right in-line with the Ravens’ average points allowed.
Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
Betting Corner Ravens -13.5
Spread: Ravens -13.5
Moneyline: Baltimore -835, Cincinnati +600
The line opened with a wide margin at Baltimore -13.5. Outside of their week three 14-point loss against Kansas City, The Ravens have outscored their opponents 102-39. Baltimore’s ability to run the ball against the weak rush defense of Cincinnati gives Baltimore a clear path for controlling this game. Meanwhile, the over-under of 52 and -13.5 line implies a final score of 32.25 for Baltimore and 18.75 for Cincinnati.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
Ultimately, this is a game that most people will not be flocking to for daily fantasy options. However, there might be a few diamonds in the rough. First, consider Mark Ingram. He’s currently $5400 on DraftKings, a full $2800 behind the most expensive running back of the week. Baltimore will likely be playing from ahead, and Cincinnati is allowing the seventh-highest rushing yards per attempt in the NFL, a combination that could bode well for a Baltimore running back. Mark Ingram leads the running back trio in rushes with 34 compared to 27 and 15 respectively for Edwards and Dobbins, and is tied with Dobbins with two rushing touchdowns. If you like the matchup, but want an even cheaper option, consider pivoting to J.K. Dobbins at $4300 or Gus Edwards at $4000.
The matchup is tough, but it’s hard to pass up the touches Mixon will see for just $6300. Mixon saw 31 total opportunities in week four (25 carries and 6 targets), for nearly 200 total yards and three touchdowns. It is fair to say the Bengals decided to get their star running back involved. As Baltimore is even stingier against quarterbacks than they are running backs, expect the Bengals to center their offense around Mixon once again. Since he always sees work in the passing game, you don’t have to worry about the bad game-script keeping Mixon out of the game.
Logic tells us the Bengals will be playing from behind in this one, so expect another pass-heavy game from Burrow. Consider starting the Bengals leader in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, Tyler Boyd. With a 20-percent target share, Boyd’s role in the offense is locked-and-loaded. Boyd has collected at least seven receptions in each of the past three games. Boyd won’t break your bank, either, as he’s currently going for $6200 in DraftKing’s standard $50,000 budget, which is $1700 cheaper than the most expensive option. Considering Boyd’s in line for a large amount of targets, he could possibly be the Contrarian of the week.
The Ravens are fairly stingy against the quarterback position, but an opportunity might present itself for Joe Burrow to put up a solid fantasy day. Burrow is averaging a whopping 44 pass attempts per game, enough to get any fantasy player excited. Additionally, he just became the first NFL rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games, also throwing six total touchdowns over that span. As he’ll likely be playing from behind against a team that has shown a propensity to keep the gas pedal down when they’re ahead, expect Burrow to air it out on Sunday. Burrow and Boyd are currently a combined $12,200 in DraftKings, a great low-cost stack to book-end a roster full of typical fantasy studs elsewhere.