Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Preview (1/22/23): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

After tragedy struck in their regular season meeting which caused the game to be canceled, the much-anticipated rematch has finally arrived and the stakes could not be any higher. Both were highly touted to walk through their first opponent via large spreads, yet both had to rely on narrow victories to get to the next round. The Bengals also suffered another devastating injury to their offensive line. Can they overcome the adversity and get the upset victory?

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as they opened the Bengals as a +3.5 underdog. Bettors are also aligned with the oddsmakers by backing the Bills up to as high as -4.5 in some shops. The Bills come into this one far healthier than the Bengals and with an opportunity to abuse their offensive line now that they may be without three starting linemen. Should they limit Burrow’s success in the backfield then they will be poised to run away with this one.

Speaking of running away with it, oddsmakers believe that points will be scored in a flash as they opened the total at 48.5. Bettors are in agreement with that ideology, backing the over up to as high as 50.5. Even with a hobbled offensive line, the Bengals are still dangerous should Burrow get enough time to let his weapons create space. They still field one of the best receiving corps in football and will need to try and keep up with the Bills scoring pace.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Pick: Bills -4

Even with dangerous weapons all over for the Bengals offense, I still don’t believe it will be enough to make this even close as the Bills are given an opportunity to make this game a nightmare for Joe Burrow. The offensive line injury woes will be too much to overcome against one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, a defense that will send pressure and abuse the Bengals backups.

We saw a glimpse of Burrow being able to combat against that, throwing quick routes for minimal gains at a time. While that worked early on, it was eventually plugged up and resulted in multiple empty trips for the Bengals at the end of the game. The Bills will be able to replicate the same Ravens defensive success, sending blitz packages while jamming the receivers to prolong their ability to create space.

To make matters even worse for the Bengals, they will be hard pressed to establish the run as the Bills are one of the best rush defense units in football. They finished the season third in Def Rush DVOA, excelling at plugging production at the line and not allowing opposing running backs to get to the second level. It should be no different this time around with the weak Bengals offensive line.

Betting Trends

• Over is 7-3 in last 10 meetings against each other
• Underdog is 7-2 ATS in last nine meetings
• Bills are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss

Key Injuries

Cincinnati Bengals Injuries: Alex Cappa (D), La’el Collins (O), Jonah Williams (O)

Buffalo Bills Injuries: Isaiah McKenzie (D), Jordan Phillips (Q)

Key Matchups

Can Josh Allen clean up the mistakes and lead the Bills offense past the Bengals?

Josh Allen vs Bengals secondary

It’s no secret that Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in football. Large body, rocket arm, and an elite dual threat skillset. One issue that has plagued him over the years is his Brett Favre type tendencies to get carless through the air.

The Bengals defense is around slightly above average at best, ranking 12th in Def Pass DVOA. They were also just recently torched by a backup quarterback with Eli Apple being embarrassed on multiple occasions for deep ball connections. 

With constant pressure from the Bills wideouts as a deep threat, expect Josh Allen to cleanly pick apart the Bengals. Especially when targeting whoever Eli Apple is covering as the Bengals clear weakness.

Verdict

With clear defensive advantages against a hobbled Bengals o-line that will slow down the Bengals high powered offense, I expect the Bills to win in dominant fashion and cover the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

QB: Joe Burrow
RB1: Joe Mixon
RB2: Samaje Perine
LWR: Jamarr Chase
RWR: Tee Higgins
SWR: Tyler Boyd
TE1: Hayden Hurst

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Devin Singletary
RB2: James Cook
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabe Davis
SWR: Isaiah McKenzie
TE1: Dawson Knox