Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (12/04/23)
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) play host to the Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) on Monday Night Football this week (12/04/23). This game may have lost some of its intrigue after Joe Burrow’s injury, but there are still plenty of exciting skill players from which to choose NFL player prop bets. This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Bengals vs. Jaguars player prop bets.
Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
The first player we looked at for a player prop bet in this game was tight end Evan Engram because the Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends. They are allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.36 per game) and the second-most yards (70.8) to opposing tight ends this season, and just allowed a whopping 9 catches for 120 yards to the Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth last week.
The Bengals have allowed nine or more catches to an opposing tight end in three of their last five games, and one of the games they didn’t is when the Ravens’ Mark Andrews got injured very early in the game (after already recording 2 quick catches). Overall they have allowed at least five receptions to a tight end five different times, and have allowed tight ends to go over on their catches prop six times.
Evan Engram is leading the Jaguars with 5.8 catches per game and is second on the team in targets at 7.45 per game. He is third in the league among TEs in receptions and 6th in yards at 47.6 per game. He has at least four catches in every game this season and at least five catches eight of his 11 games.
With all that in mind, getting this bet at +110 odds is an absolute home run in terms of value. We also like the over on Engram’s yards at 42.5, but the receptions prop is the better bet and the better value given the odds. This is easily our favorite player prop bet in this game and one of the best bets on the week 13 slate.
Joe Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Here is another great bet on a player who has a great matchup in an area of his game in which he excels. Joe Mixon is a talented all-around running back and an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield. He got off to a bit of a slow start this season (along with the rest of the Bengals), but over his last six games he has at least 23 receiving yards in five of them and is averaging over 25 receiving yards per game over that span.
The Jaguars have an excellent run defense – they are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and the 4th fewest rushing yards overall. However, they have been the worst team in the league at defending pass-catching running backs. They have yielded the most receptions per game (7.18) and the second-most receiving yards per game (49.5) to opposing RBs. At least one running back has gone over his receiving yards prop line in all but 1 game this season when facing the Jaguars.
With Joe Burrow out for the season, the Bengals should be leaning even more heavily on Mixon. If they’re going to get Mixon very involved in this game, then given the matchup it’s much more likely to happen through the air than on the ground. Mixon had his best game of the season through the air last week against the Steelers, thanks largely to a 39-yard screen play in the fourth quarter.
Joe Mixon picking up 39 yards 💪pic.twitter.com/3FixobIuYJ
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) November 26, 2023
Mixon is a reliable safety valve for backup QB Jake Browning and should get plenty of opportunities in the passing game in this, both on designed plays and on check downs. Game script also should work in favor of this bet, as the Jaguars are favored by more than a touchdown and are expected to be leading for most of this game, which will force the Bengals into more passing opportunities.
The Bengals’ offense may struggle overall without Burrow against a tough Jaguars defense, but one player we can be confident in is Mixon, especially through the air.
Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
For our final player prop betting pick in this game, we’re going back to the Jaguars’ passing offense to the ultra-reliable Christian Kirk. The Jaguars’ leading wide receiver has been remarkably consistent this season, gaining at least 46 receiving yards in every game since week 1. Over that 10-game span he has gone over 51.5 receiving yards seven times.
We covered the Bengals’ struggles against tight ends earlier, but they haven’t been much better against wide receivers, allowing 168.5 yards per game to the position (ninth most in the league). They also could be missing one of their starting cornerbacks, Cam Taylor-Britt, who missed last weeks’ game with a quad injury and remains questionable for this week.
The Bengals have allowed at least one opposing WR to gain 50+ yards in every game this season since Week 1. We feel very confident that at least one of Kirk or Calvin Ridley will eclipse that number, so the question became which wideout we trusted more.
Ridley has started to get into a rhythm with Trevor Lawrence recently and has averaged 96 yards per game over his last 2 games. He is the more talented receiver and the greater big play threat, but we ultimately went with Kirk based on his consistency throughout his career and especially this season. His prop line is also a few yards lower, which doesn’t hurt.
We like both Ridley and Kirk to have good games this week, but betting the over on Kirk’s yards seems like the safer choice and one of the best player prop bets in this game.
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