Get Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers player prop picks & odds for the (12/23/23) matchup.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers kicks off this Saturday at 4:30pm EST in Minneapolis Minnesota as a home game for the Steelers. The Bengals are currently a -2 favorite and -130 on the moneyline while the total is set at 38. Expect a successful ground game from the likes of Joe Mixon and Jaylen Warren while Jake Browning continues to thrive, all giving value as player props for this Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers matchup.
Jaylen Warren Over 42.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been a frustrating year for Jaylen Warren as he has had to split duties with the inferior Najee Harris all season long, has gotten no help from his quarterback in their efforts to stretch the field, and now his own receivers refuse to downfield block. The Steelers offense is a dumpster fire and has been for the majority of the year no matter who is at offensive coordinator.
With that said, this game has bounce back opportunities written all over it for the Steelers offense as the Bengals defense has been just as bad. When not creating Havoc and flipping the field in favor of their offense, the Bengals defense has actually been prone to getting beat down the field at a pretty consistent rate. As a whole, the Bengals defense ranks 26th in Def DVOA.
Better yet for Warren, the Bengals front seven has been especially bad in their efforts to stuff the run as they rank 29th in Def Rush DVOA, 28th in Def Rush Success Rate, 26th in Def Rush EPA, and 27th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. With Najee Harris currently listed as questionable as he deals with an injury, Warren may see an uptick in his attempts which gives him a better chance of shredding this weak Bengals front seven.
Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown
Not only is Warren in a position to succeed in the mid field, but he may find the end zone as well. The Bengals poor Def Rush EPA means they struggle just as much in the red zone as they do defend in the mid field, now having to do so against a running back who is just as lethal in the pass game as well.
The Steelers offense as a whole is due for a bounce back opportunity as well, getting the benefit of taking on a horrifically bad Bengals defense. That leads to more scoring opportunities as they move the ball down the field, giving Warren added attempts to cash this prop. He’s still priced comfortably behind Harris yet is presented more opportunities as a dual threat back.
Jake Browning Over 31.5 Pass Attempts
Jake Browning has been a revelation since getting the starting nod in Joe Burrow’s absence, keeping the Bengals playoff hopes alive with a string of wins and respectable performances. With each passing game, Browning has been able to get more aggressive in his efforts, coming off a comeback win against the Vikings where he threw the ball 42 times.
What a THROW from Jake Browning to Ja’Marr Chase! 👀👀 pic.twitter.com/TeJjt3r4fu
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) December 16, 2023
More intriguing yet, that was against a very elite Vikings pass coverage unit showing that Zac Taylor has all the belief in him to throw against stout defenses rather than keep it conservative. The Steelers present another tough defensive test for Browning, as well as the spread indicating that this may be close throughout the whole contest.
That means the Bengals will have to revert to another heavy dose of the pass in order to stay within scoring pace of the Steelers. This prop doesn’t need the extra benefit of yardage or completions, just the simple concept of each pass playing towards cashing this over. Factor in the Steelers high rate of the blitz with average pressure at best and the middle of the field should be ripe for the picking in Browning’s favor.
Joe Mixon 2+ Touchdowns
Like the Steelers, the Bengals are also in a position to thrive as Browning has been able to maintain a high level of production since taking over as the backup quarterback. They now get the benefit of taking on a fatigued Steelers defense, a unit that is playing far below what their elite metrics imply.
The uptick in scoring opportunities will play directly into Joe Mixon’s hands as he is their best option when inside the red zone. The Steelers coverage still plays at a high rate when backed up into the end zone, ranking 11th in Def Pass EPA and 15th in Def Rush DVOA. The issue is that they conceded rushing production at a high rate, dipping to as low as 18th in Def Rush EPA.