Clemson vs. Duke kicks off this Saturday (01/27/24) at 4:00pm EST in Durham North Carolina as a home game for the Blue Devils. Get Clemson vs. Duke predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on Duke’s moneyline as a valuable piece to a two team moneyline parlay.
Clemson Vs. Duke Prediction
After a dominant stretch, the Duke Blue Devils have quickly fallen hard back to reality. They are now teetering on the fence of qualifying as a potential National Championship contender per historic Kenpom metrics, faltering due to an anemic offense and lackluster defense. Luckily for them, they now return home to get back on track against a reeling Clemson unit.
Clemson once looked like the best team in the ACC earlier this season, now falling down the board due to their defense. The Tigers come into the contest ranked 93rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom. Their struggles are in large part of their lack of perimeter defense, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 34.6% from deep. That percentage ranks them 238th in the nation per TeamRankings.
That bodes well for a Duke offense who excels from deep, shooting 37.8% from three and 41.1% when they are at home. Kyle Filipowski growing into a legitimate go-to scoring threat with his pursuits to the rim have given his guards much needed space for higher quality looks from the arc. Filipowski is also capable of taking his opposing big man away from the rim and to the perimeter as he shoots 39.7% from three. This creates high quality gaps for his guards to exploit, getting clean looks at the rim.
The issue with backing the Blue Devils on the spread is that their defense will consistently allow Clemson to keep this tight until they can prove otherwise. Duke’s AdjD has slipped to 38th, surrendering an Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage of 58.4% in their last three contests. Instead of backing them to cover -8, Duke’s moneyline in a two-team parlay is a better way to back them. You can pair Duke with Kentucky’s moneyline against Arkansas to cut through the juice, bypassing both spreads and getting the chance to root for just an outright win.
Clemson Vs. Duke Prediction: Duke / Kentucky Moneyline Parlay
Clemson Vs. Duke Best Odds
Even after an underwhelming stretch of games, oddsmakers believe this is a get right spot for Duke as they open the Blue Devils as a -7.5 favorite. Bettors lean slightly towards their favor as well, backing them up to -8 in some shops. Until their defense can round back into elite form, then this is a pass as they will routinely allow Clemson to keep this close.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 153.5. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly slower pace, backing the under down to as low as 150.5 as of writing. A curious line movement with two reeling defenses, making the over worth a look should this continue to tick down before tipoff.
Clemson Vs. Duke Key Matchups
Can Jeremy Roach continue to give Filipowski much needed scoring support?
Jeremy Roach vs. Clemson’s Guards
Duke’s issue last season was that they were too reliant on Kyle Filipowski to carry the scoring torch. To no surprise, that has been their issue in their past few games as they have reverted back to an anemic offense. Should they want to round back into form then he will need help from his guards.
📺 ACCN pic.twitter.com/d1SvyExFNG
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) January 24, 2024
Luckily for Filipowski, Jeremy Roach has been just that as he averages 14.4 points as a dual threat guard. Roach has been a lethal perimeter threat as well as being able to drive to the rim for high quality scoring opportunities. With Clemson struggling to defend the perimeter, as well as having to throw help side coverage at Filipowski, Roach should have no issue with picking up the slack as a go-to scoring threat.
North Carolina Sports Betting Update
North Carolina sports betting is currently legal with online sportsbooks set to go live at noon EST on March 11th. At that time — just eight days before the start of the NCAA March Madness tournament — North Carolina residents will be able to take advantage of new user bonuses like a bet $1 get $365 in bonus bets offer from Bet365 North Carolina and $500 in first bet insurance from BetRivers North Carolina to wager on their favorite teams.
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