Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos NFL Player Props & Picks (11/26/23)

Get Browns vs. Broncos player prop picks & odds for the (11/26/23) matchup

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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Picks

The Denver Broncos (5-5) play host to the Cleveland Browns (7-3) on Sunday (11/26/23) at 4:05pm ET in a game that will have major implications on the AFC playoff picture. The Broncos are the hottest team in the league on their current four-game winning streak, while the Browns are riding a three-game streak of their own.

This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Browns vs. Broncos player prop bets.

David Njoku over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

The Broncos’ defense has been playing much better recently after earning a reputation as the worst unit in the league following its 70-point disaster against Miami in Week 3. Many of their season-long numbers are still among the worst in the league thanks largely to that game, but those numbers look much better over the last four or five weeks.

One big exception to that is their defense against tight ends. They are the worst defense in the league against tight ends, allowing 72.2 receiving yards per game to the position. And that has nothing to do with that Miami game, as the Dolphins’ top tight end Durham Smythe had only 15 yards in that game. That was the lowest output of any starting TE against the Broncos this season.

Njoku has been a very reliable pass catcher for the Browns this season. He has at least 45 receiving yards in six of his 10 games this season, including both games started by rookie backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Conventional NFL wisdom says that rookie QBs love to target tight ends, and that was certainly the case last week as DTR peppered Njoku with a career-high 15 (!) targets, which he converted to seven catches for 56 yards.

Njoku has gone over his receiving yards prop in six of his last seven games and has 50+ yards in 4 of his last five games. The Broncos have allowed 40+ receiving yards to a tight end in three straight games and six of their last seven. All signs point to those trends continuing this week, making this pick our favorite player prop bet in this game.

Dustin Hopkins over 1.5 field goals made (+112 at Caesars)

This game should be a defensive struggle, and it’s no surprise the over/under is set at a paltry 36.5 points. The Browns have the best defense in the league, and as noted above the Broncos’ defense has been much better recently. They are ninth in the league in the defensive EPA over the last five weeks, which coincides with their four-game winning streak.

In a game where points will be at a premium, these teams will take points whenever they can get them, which means both kickers should be very active. We like both teams to kick at least two field goals in this game, and we’re going with this Hopkins bet because of the plus odds.

Hopkins has made at least two field goals in all but one of his games this season. That is a bit surprising considering the Browns have been above average in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 56.7% of red zone trips (12th best in the league). But we can’t argue with the production.

The Broncos’ defense has also been solid in the red zone this season, allowing touchdowns on 52.6% of attempts (14th in the league). So when the Browns get in close, there is a good chance they will have to settle for a field goal at least twice.

It’s also worth noting that this game is in Denver, where the ball tends to fly farther because of the high altitude. As of this writing, the weather forecast doesn’t raise any concerns about this game, so there should be good conditions for the kicking game.

Given the venue, Hopkins’ track record this season and the expected game script, getting this bet at plus odds is a great value.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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