Get Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans player prop picks & odds for the (12/24/23) matchup.
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Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Houston Texas as a home game for the Texans. The Browns are currently a -3 favorite and -148 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40. Expect Joe Flacco to continue to be a rollercoaster in production while Devin Singletary and Jerome Ford struggle against two stout front sevens, all giving value as player props for this Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans matchup.
Joe Flacco Over 244.5 Passing Yards
Joe Flacco has been an instant upgrade for the Browns passing attack since getting picked up after Week 12. He plays as if he has nothing to lose, continuing to sling the ball down the field at an aggressive rate — something that plays towards the over in this matchup.
While his play can be erratic at times, Head Coach Kevin Stefanski has put his trust in Flacco — letting him throw upwards of 35 times a game. Individuals should expect a similar game script against a relatively weak Houston Texans secondary — a unit that ranks 23rd in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass Success Rate, and 20th in Def Pass EPA.
Better yet for Flacco’s potential to have another successful passing outing, he may face minimal pressure in pass sets this time around as the Texans front line ranks 18th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. That helps negate errand throws at times when he has to get the ball out quicker than anticipated, as well as give his receivers ample time to create separation for a higher quality passing lane.
Joe Flacco Over 0.5 Interception
Just because Flacco is in a position to thrive in the pass attack doesn’t mean that he will not be prone to more turnover worthy plays. Flacco has been the definition of a roller coaster in production since taking starting duties, helping his team just slightly more than hurting with a few head scratching interceptions.
T.J. Edwards was so CLOSE to picking off Joe Flacco.
I don’t know how this ball got through.
Here is a slowed down version of the play. pic.twitter.com/wB8DlGXkBp
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) December 21, 2023
He comes off a three-interception performance in his last game out, a product of his own mistakes rather than an elevated secondary level of play. He also may be called upon to throw at a heavier rate as the Texans boast a stout run defense, giving this prop a higher chance of cashing as his expected interception to completion rate increases with the attempts as well.
Jerome Ford Under 41.5 Rushing Yards
As mentioned in the prop before, the Houston Texans front seven has been an elite run stopping unit which directly affects Ford’s ability to clear this over. Entering this contest, the Texans defense ranks fifth in Def Rush DVOA, second in Def Rush Success Rate, fourth in Def Rush EPA, and second in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
Like the offense as a whole, the Browns ground game has continued to struggle throughout the season and may be poised to sputter once again against the Texans front seven. The Browns ground game clocks in at 22nd in Rush DVOA, 17th in Rush Success Rate, and 18th in Rush EPA.
A big reason for the Browns offensive struggles has been from the decimation of their offensive line, a unit that currently has four starters listed as questionable. This was once thought of as one of the best units in football, now dipping to below average metrics due to injury. The Browns offensive line currently ranks 26th in Adjusted Line Yards and now has to take on a Texans front four who has excelled at pushing back and clogging rushing lanes.
Devin Singletary Longest Rush Under 16.5 Yards
Like the Browns ground game, the Texans have also ranked well below average in rush metrics as Dameon Pierce has taken a major step back in production. Granted not all the blame can be pointed at him as his offensive line was thrashed by injuries for a better part of the season which seriously affected the quality of running lanes at Dameon’s demise.
Singletary has since taken over starting running back duties and has been a force to be reckoned with while racking up serious yardage in the backfield. The issue this time around is that Stroud is now most likely out and Case Keenum will be unable to stretch the defense. That gives the Browns elite run stopping defense the ability to stack the box, keeping Singletary bottled up at the line.