Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors Preview (11/11/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

Familiar foes meet on Friday night, as the Cleveland Cavaliers (8-3) visit the slumping Golden State Warriors (4-7). Both squads nearly own a clean injury report, so they will essentially be at full strength. The most prominent absences are Ricky Rubio for Cleveland and Donte DiVincenzo for Golden State.

Will the Warriors improve their 4-1 home record? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Despite the radically different starts, Golden State is slightly favored by 1.5 points with their moneyline being offered at -125. Cleveland’s +116 moneyline means they must win 47% of the time to be profitable. The 228.5 over under is a large line, which is a testament to the individual offensive talent present in this matchup.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

I am thrilled to get the Cavaliers moneyline at plus odds, and I’m also taking them to cover the +2 spread. Essentially, it’s a two-unit play on Cleveland here.

The off-season addition of Donovan Mitchell has completely revamped the offense, as they currently rank 3rd in Offensive Rating. Cleveland lacked an off the dribble scorer who could create his own shot last season outside of Darius Garland, but Mitchell provides that to the highest degree. He’s producing 31.9 PPG on an absurd 51/44/86 shooting split, and Mitchell is also raising teammate shot quality at 5.8 APG. His electric scoring combined with Garland’s playmaking and pull-up jumpers deem them arguably the most dangerous offensive backcourt in the league.

They have a tantalizing matchup here too, as Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are allowing opponents to drive past them with ease. Klay no longer possesses the necessary lateral quickness to stay in front of guards, and Poole is often helpless on defense due to poor instincts and a small frame. Stephen Curry remains a decent on-ball defender, but he’s not a stopper in the slightest. The Warriors (27th Defensive Rating) currently own one of the worst half-court defenses in large part because of their guards, and the same could be said about why the Cavaliers own one of the most efficient half-court offenses.

Draymond Green is notorious for his elite help defense, but he may struggle to handle his own matchups. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both hyper-efficient rolling off of the screen, and their height advantage over Green allows the lob to remain a constant threat. Because Garland is such a skilled passer, any drifting from Green will result in an easy bucket for Cleveland’s big men. Looney’s rim protection has been mediocre this season too, which only increases Cleveland’s interior threats.

Wiggins may attempt to roam in Green’s stead, but it’s not an attractive proposition to sag off of Caris LeVert, who is converting 40% of his catch and shoot threes. Mitchell is at 39% too, while Garland sits at an unsustainable 61.5%.

Defensively, Cleveland poses a much bigger threat to Golden State than the reverse. The Cavaliers rank 3rd in Defensive Rating because Allen deters any shots around the basket while Mobley terrorizes opponents at every area of the court – the pair both rank in the top eight for contested shots. In order to defeat the Cavaliers, it’s necessary to convert plenty of jump shots at a high rate. There’s no doubt that Stephen Curry (32.6 PPG, 43.1 3PT%) will exploit Garland, and Wiggins is a sharpshooter. However, the rest of the roster is cold from deep and may considerably limit their offensive potential.

One final thing to note is the free throw battle, which could provide Cleveland instant offense while sticking fouls to the Warriors key players. Golden State is 30th in opponent free throw rate by a decent margin, while Cleveland ranks 7th in free throw rate.

Overall, Cleveland’s offense is a nightmare for Golden State; they can pressure the rim, station shooters on the three-point line, and attack the Warriors guards with off the dribble scorers. Stephen Curry’s brilliance is extremely concerning and Golden State can always go nuclear from deep, but the plus moneyline remains tantalizing. Home-court and previous matchups are being overvalued, as Cleveland is a completely different team with Mitchell. The Cavaliers should be favored, but that only means there is long-term value on them here.

Betting Trends

  • Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Bench Matchup

Golden State’s bench is in shambles at the moment with Poole’s offense completely diminished. Their forward and center rotation is also lacking, and the defense has been abysmal. They now face a veteran-laden Cavaliers second unit led by a deadly frontcourt of Kevin Love (12.3 PPG, 41.8 3PT%), Cedi Osman (9.3 PPG, 39.5 3PT%), and Dean Wade (7.3 PPG, 50 3PT%). All three effectively act as an on or off-ball threat, which makes the offense versatile and unpredictable. It’s expected that Cleveland obliterates Golden State’s bench; if this happens, then it will be monumentally difficult for Golden State to win this matchup.

Rebounding

The Cavaliers are 1st in Defensive Rebounding Percentage, so the undersized Warriors cannot expect many second chance opportunities against their plethora of big men. On the other hand, the Warriors are 23rd in this category, and Jarrett Allen ranks 6th in offensive rebounds per game. With Cleveland expected to attempt more free throws and put-backs, they don’t have to be as efficient as the Warriors do on jump shots to produce offense. As a result, Golden State’s margin for error is far slimmer than Cleveland’s.

Cleveland Cavaliers Starting Lineup

PG: Darius Garland
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Caris LeVert
PF: Evan Mobley
C: Jarrett Allen

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Cleveland Cavaliers Injuries: Ricky Rubio (O), Dylan Windler (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Donte DiVincenzo (O), Andre Iguodala (O)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

Hot NBA Matchup Previews Stories