Colgate vs. Syracuse: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/20/21)

Colgate vs. Syracuse Betting Odds

The powerhouse of the Patriot League, Colgate, will take its talents up to Syracuse, New York to play the Orange in this uber-entertaining non-conference matchup.

Everybody knows about Syracuse. Jim Boeheim and his son, Buddy Boeheim, lead an Orange team that plays an obnoxious 2-3 zone and shoots the lights out from deep.

However, not many people know about Colgate. The Raiders have reached the Patriot League championship game four years in a row. Coach Matt Langel has built an absurdly efficient and high-scoring offense, and he brings back the whole band from last year’s team.

The Raiders are experienced and talented, but do they have enough juice to take on the Orange?

Colgate Raiders Odds

The Colgate offense is a firecracker. Last season, nobody scored more points per game than the Raiders except Gonzaga. The Raiders finished fifth in effective field goal percentage, fifth in turnover rate, and third in 3-point percentage.

Now, it’s worth mentioning the Raiders accomplished this against a conference-only schedule. But this team can score the basketball, and Langel’s roster has another year of experience under its belt to run it back.

Colgate returned four starters and almost 80% of its minutes played from last season. The team lost the Patriot League Player of the Year in Jordan Burns, but Nelly Cummings has had no issues stepping up this season (16.8 points per game).

So far, it’s been up-and-down for Colgate. The Raiders beat Northwestern by seven as underdogs, covered against N.C. State, and then had a complete let-down game against Cornell.

It bounced back with a win over Division-3 SUNY Poly, and I might be ready to buy the Raiders again.

Syracuse Orange Odds

Normally, Syracuse is average until about late January. They stumble through non-conference and ACC play, getting hot as a bubble team before making an underdog run to the Sweet Sixteen as an 11-seed.

Well, this year feels different.

Through two games, the Orange are shooting 50% from deep. They’re assisting on 64.3% of their field goals made, top-25 nationally. And they forced Lafayette and Drexel into long, unfulfilling offensive sets that resulted in blowout losses.

Meanwhile, the Boeheim brothers have combined for over 36 points per game in the two wins, and the Orange have two other teams averaging double digits.

But the problem is: Syracuse has played only Lafayette and Drexel, and it failed to cover against the latter.

So, what version of the Orange are we going to get? The team that went 9-7 in conference play last season, or the team that’s made more Sweet Sixteens than Kentucky in the last 12 seasons?

The answer may lie in this game.

Prediction and Pick 

My prediction: Colgate +11.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Syracuse is a good basketball team, but I’m buying in on the Raiders.

Colgate has the shooting and the personnel to beat the Boeheim zone. Over the past two seasons, the Raiders have faced a zone defense on just 20 possessions, but they’ve scored over 1.0 points per possession against those sets.

It’s a small sample size, but I’ll take the team that posted the highest points per possession in spot-up offensive situations last year (1.174) catching over 11 points.

Meanwhile, spot-up defense favors the Raiders as well. Through the first few games this season, Syracuse has allowed .825 points per possession in those situations, but Colgate has allowed .549. The latter ranks in the 97th percentile of Division-I teams.

These two teams are going to try and out-shoot each other. But Colgate has the advantage on both ends and should beat the zone in the traditional, shoot-over-it fashion.

I’m not saying Colgate wins, but I do like the Raiders to cover.