Alabama vs. Texas A&M: Prediction, Odds (10/7/23)

#11 Alabama travels to face Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon (10/7/23). Get Alabama vs. Texas A&M odds, predictions, and picks below; our best bet is Texas A&M under 22.5 points.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction

Alabama’s offense certainly has its issues, but their defense is a machine. They are currently the top ranked defense in the nation per PFF and allowing a measly 14.2 points per game.

Opponents cannot stop pass rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell from getting to the quarterback. Of the 254 defensive linemen with at least 100 pass rush snaps, Turner (3rd) and Braswell (8th) both rank top ten in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity, which is a “formula that combines sacks, hits, and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer.” In other words, Turner and Braswell are exceptionally disruptive and slashing opponent’s time to throw. That’s horrible news for a Texas A&M offensive line that ranks 102nd in pass blocking and has allowed 64 pressures already (per PFF).

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide boast an elite secondary that has given up only 184.2 passing yards per game. Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold, and Malachi Moore form probably the stickiest cornerback trio in the nation, but Alabama also owns excellent safeties in Caleb Downs and Jaylen Key. Overall, this unit can lock down opponents and neutralize aerial attacks.

Texas A&M’s offense fielded an effective passing game with quarterback Conner Weigman at the helm, but he unfortunately suffered a season-ending injury against Auburn. Backup Max Johnson is a veteran quarterback that started for LSU in 2021, but he’s a definite downgrade. He’s far riskier with the ball and not as accurate as Weigman. Johnson also doesn’t escape pressure well, while Weigman was an escape artist. Against this defensive front, Johnson’s tendency to take sacks will doom numerous drives.

He has the weapons to put up points; for example, wide receiver Evan Stewart appears to be a future NFL first round pick. However, Texas A&M cannot rely on the run game as usual to open up the passing attack, which limits their options. Given this coverage, Johnson will need to hold onto the ball, and that’s unwise with Turner and Braswell in pursuit.

In summation, Texas A&M’s offense is somewhat defanged without Weigman, and 23 points against this Alabama defense is a bridge too far. The Aggies most likely score between 14 to 21 points here.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Texas A&M under 22.5 points

Braxton Reynolds

Lineups

Under 22.5

DraftKings

-105

Texas A&M Team Total

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies

CFB2023 Week 6

10/07 7:30 PM


Bet with Braxton


Published on Oct 4, 2023 9:56 PM

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Alabama vs. Texas A&M Best Odds

ALA @ TXAM

Oct. 07, 7:30 PM

Moneyline

Alabama Crimson Tide

ALA

Texas A&M Aggies

TXAM

Odds updated October 7th, 2023, at 10:54 pm

The Tide are favored by only 1.5 points here. If this line was imposed on all matchups against Texas A&M during the Saban era, then Alabama would be 9-2 against the spread. For Texas A&M’s +105 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win here about 49 percent of the time. Finally, the 46.5 over under is on the lower end of games this week.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M Key Matchups

Which team will win the key matchups below?

Texas A&M Turnovers

Max Johnson isn’t hyper-careful with the football like Weigman. During his last year as a starter in 2021, Johnson ranked 106th of 124 in turnover worthy play rate and 81st in pressure to sack ratio (per PFF, min. 200 dropbacks). Those flaws still linger, so look for Alabama to force a key turnover or two and halt Texas A&M in its tracks.

Deontae Lawson Health

Star linebacker Deontae Lawson suffered a sprained ankle against Ole Miss and subsequently missed the Mississippi State game. It’s unknown whether he can suit up against the Aggies, but his status appears doubtful. If Lawson once again sits, then that’s a huge blow to Alabama’s run defense. Per PFF, Lawson ranks second on the team in tackles despite playing one less game and owns 16 run play tackles compared to zero run play missed tackles.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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