Colorado Vs. Arizona State: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds (10/7/23)

Colorado vs. Arizona State kicks off this Saturday at 6:30pm EST in Tempe Arizona as a home game for the Sun Devils. Colorado is currently a -4.5 favorite and -180 on the moneyline while the total is set at 60.5. Read on for more Colorado vs. Arizona State best bets and predictions as this game may be a lower scoring affair than the total implies.

Colorado Vs. Arizona State Prediction

It was widely expected that the Colorado hype would come crashing down after a two-game stint against the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans. While the Oregon game turned ugly really quick, Colorado impressively bounced back in a one score loss to USC. While their playoff hopes vanished, Colorado now turns their sights towards a bowl berth. A far more realistic goal than what preseason wagers implied.

As for Arizona State, it’s about as bad as it gets for a team that is currently 1-4 to start the season. Expectations were low heading into the year, and they still may have not even found their floor as they come into this one as a +4.5 underdog.

All the blame for the Sun Devils poor start to the season can be pointed towards their offense as this unit is as bad as it gets. They rank near dead last in Success Rate, Points per Opportunity, and Havoc Allowed. They generate no form of consistency, already giving three different quarterbacks meaningful playtime with Jaden Rashada, Trenton Bourguet, and Drew Pyne all struggling under center. So far, the trio has combined for five touchdowns and eight interceptions.

This gives immediate value to the under as Colorado’s glaring weakness has been their defense. Especially when defending the pass, ranking 131st in Def Pass Success Rate and 115th in Def Pass PPA. They are undersized in the trenches, giving opposing quarterbacks ample time to make the right read with a clean pocket.

To counteract their anemic defensive line, Colorado sends heavy pressure from their second level. The secondary is capable of holding their own against ASU’s weak receiving unit, allowing the Buffs to send extra pressure in an effort to exploit ASU’s inability to take care of the ball. Any sort of stalled out drive or early out plays a major factor towards the under, a big factor of why this total has come crashing down since the open.

Colorado Vs. Arizona State Prediction: Under 60.5

Colorado Vs. Arizona State Best Odds

After being pegged as a massive underdog to two Pac 12 elites, Colorado now flips the script as a short favorite. Oddsmakers originally opened them as a -5.5 favorite before bettors disagreed and bet Arizona State down to +4.5. The movement comes as no surprise as the allure of Colorado wears off and bettors temper their expectations of the Buffs. Their defense will routinely allow opposing offenses to match their scoring pace, keeping games tight.

Speaking of scoring, points are expected to be scored at a lightning quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 63.5. Bettors believed that number opened way too high, backing the under down to as low as 60.5 as of writing. With the Sun Devils offense playing as anemic as possible, Colorado has a better chance than ever on the defensive end in an effort to limit opposing offensive success.

Colorado Vs. Arizona State Key Matchups

Can the Sun Devils slow down Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado pass attack?

Shedeur Sanders Vs. Arizona State Front Seven

It’s no secret that the Colorado defense is as bad as it gets. What the Buffs do have going for them is that they found instant success with their high-powered offense. This is in large part of Shedeur Sanders playing as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, burning defenses with his elite arm as he shreds opposing secondaries.

While this may spell doom for the under, Oregon laid the blueprint for how to slow down this offense and that is to send relentless pressure to the backfield. Sanders has a tendency to force the play when it’s not there, as well as being forced to throw into tight windows when on the run and taking ill-advised sacks.

Colorado’s offensive line is grossly undersized, giving Arizona State the advantage in the trenches. This compliments their secondary that has done a respectable job in coverage, a unit that ranks 54th in Def Pass Success Rate, 29th in Def Pass PPA, and 15th in Def Pass Explosiveness.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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