The Rockies come into Miami on a hot streak after finishing off a 3-game sweep of the Padres on Sunday, but they still sit last in the NL West at 30-37. The Marlins have struggled this season as well, sitting 29-36 entering Tuesday’s game, but their +13 run differential indicates better days might be ahead.
These teams will put a pair of inexperienced starters on the mound, though both are coming off strong outings. Ryan Feltner, who went seven strong against the Marlins in May, starts for the Rockies, while Daniel Castano gets the start for Miami. Feltner and Castano have combined for just 18 major-league starts, adding some unpredictability to this matchup. Take a look at the starting lineups, odds, and predictions for Tuesday’s game.
Rockies vs. Marlins Betting Odds
The Marlins are slight home favorites at -136 on the money line, despite the Rockies’ hot streak this past weekend. Colorado‘s stars have been hot of late, making the Rockies a mildly attractive option at +116, but will a trip away from Coors Field cool them down? That would be more likely against someone like Sandy Alcantara. Instead, the left-handed Castano gives this Rockies offense a chance to keep hitting and aim for their 4th consecutive win.
Rockies Starting Lineup
LF C. Joe R
DH C. Blackmon L
2B B. Rodgers R
1B C.J. Cron R
CF Y. Daza R
SS J. Iglesias R
3B R. McMahon L
RF R. Grichuk R
C E. Diaz R
Rockies Vs. Daniel Castano
Castano doesn’t have much major-league experience, with 60 innings spread across the last three seasons, but he’s yet another player from the 2017 Marcell Ozuna trade to make an impact for the Marlins. Castano came over from the Cardinals’ system along with NL Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, who brought back Jazz Chisholm in a trade three years ago. Castano hasn’t touched the success of Alcantara or Gallen, but he’s shown enough recently to earn another turn through the rotation.
It’s tough to tell what the Rockies will be able to do against Castano, who just made his first start of the season last week. Castano threw 6.2 shutout innings, quieting the red-hot Phillies, and he has yet to allow a run over 10.2 innings this season. How sustainable is this success, though? Castano isn’t much of a prospect at 27 years old, and he has a 4.82 ERA over 28 minor-league innings this year.
Castano is a left-handed pitcher, which should concern the Marlins. Colorado hits lefties well, carrying a .289 AVG, .352 OBP, and .793 OPS against left-handers into Tuesday’s matchup. The Rockies have gotten major production out of their top hitters lately – C.J. Cron hit 3 home runs in their series against the Padres, and Charlie Blackmon has a 1.272 OPS over the past week. Maybe the Marlins have a hidden gem in Castano, but the Rockies have a chance to bring him back to reality on Tuesday.
Marlins Starting Lineup
2B J. Chisholm L
1B G. Cooper R
LF J. Soler R
RF A. Garcia R
3B J. Berti R
DH L. Diaz L
CF B. De La Cruz R
SS M. Rojas R
C J. Stallings R
Marlins Vs. Ryan Feltner
Ryan Feltner doesn’t offer much more than Castano in the experience department – in fact, he’s only thrown 32.1 innings at the major-league level – but he’s flashed some potential lately. The 25-year-old rookie has a 4.85 ERA through five starts this season, but a 3.94 FIP and solid 1.15 WHIP indicate he’s been a bit better than the raw numbers indicate.
Like Castano, Feltner has had to earn this turn through the rotation. The Rockies could’ve sent him back down to the minors but instead opted to put struggling starter Austin Gomber in the bullpen and give Feltner the chance to prove himself.
Feltner has been a mixed bag this season, though he put together one of his best outings against the Marlins on May 30. Feltner allowed 1 run over 7 innings in the home victory, walking one batter and striking out six. He was hit hard by the Braves days later but bounced back against the Padres on June 11 with six innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball.
The Marlins’ offense is averaging just 2.6 runs over their last five games, down from their season average. After getting shut out by David Peterson and the Mets on Monday, they head home searching for answers and needing Jazz Chisholm to find his power stroke. If there’s any reason to believe in the Marlins’ lineup, it’s that they’ve already faced Feltner once and might be better prepared the second time around.
Rockies vs. Marlins Picks & Prediction
My pick: Over 8 runs (-112 on FanDuel)
The Marlins haven’t been hitting lately and the Rockies aren’t in Coors Field any longer, but the runs of success for these two starters might not be sustainable. Feltner hasn’t pitched in 10 days and could be a little rusty as he faces a Marlins lineup that just saw him three weeks ago. I expect better results for Marlins hitters, who average 4.5 runs/game and are due to start scoring after a down few games. At the same time, these Rockies hitters are coming in hot and should bring the lefty Castano back down to earth a little bit.
It’s tough to tell who has the advantage in a matchup of two downtrodden teams with unproven pitchers on the mound. Though you have to account for a cross-country flight, the underdog Rockies seem like the safer pick after toying with Padres pitching over the weekend.