Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/5/23)
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Get Colts vs. Panthers player prop picks & odds for the (11/05/23) matchup
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Colts vs. Panthers Player Prop Picks
The Carolina Panthers (1-6) play host to the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) this Sunday (11/05/23) at 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Colts vs. Panthers player prop bets.
Jonathan Taylor over 66.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
This number is way too low for one of the most talented running backs in the league who is facing one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Panthers are 29th overall against the run allowing 139.4 yards per game on the ground on an average of 4.7 yards per carry (28th). They are also dead last in both DVOA and EPA against the run and 31st in success rate.
Taylor has looked strong over his last two games as he continues recovering from the injury that landed him on the PUP list to start the season. He has gained 75 and 95 yards, respectively, in each of the last two weeks, and he has done that against two very good defenses in the Browns and Saints.
Those defenses are both in the top 10 in DVOA, EPA and success rate against the run. If Taylor can average 85 yards on 5.67 yards per carry against them, then imagine what he can do against this Panthers defense.
The Panthers have allowed at least 75 yards to a running back in 5 of their 7 games this season, and they’ve allowed 100-yard rushers in 2 of their last 3 games. We were tempted to be a bit more aggressive and bet on Taylor’s alt rushing line of 100+ yards (+270 odds at FanDuel). But we’d prefer to see it 1 more time from Taylor before we go that aggressive on one of his player props.
Still, you would be hard pressed to find many better player prop bets on the week 9 slate than the over on Taylor’s rushing yards this week.
Adam Thielen over 66.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Panthers’ offense looked better than it has all season last week as they earned their first win of the season against the Texans. Coming off their bye week, coach Frank Reich handed over play calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, which seems to have had a positive impact on rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
As we detailed in our matchup preview, we expect Young to build on his impressive performance last week (103.6 passer rating) and look more like the Alabama star who went No. 1 overall. That’s only going to benefit Adam Thielen, who has been a revelation this season as the Panthers’ new No. 1 wide receiver.
Thielen is 3rd in the league in receptions per game (8.14), 9th in targets (10.0) and 13th in yards (83.0). He has over 70 receiving yards in five consecutive games and has gone over his receiving yards prop line in every game since week 1. Now he gets a great matchup against a Colts defense that is 25th in passing defense (247.3 yards per game) and 21st in both DVOA and EPA against the pass this season.
If you want to tail this pick, be sure to head over to FanDuel to place your bet, where you can get the line at 66.5 while most other books have the line at 69.5 with equivalent odds.
Bryce Young over 221.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
While we’re betting on Thielen, let’s just go ahead and add the over on Young’s passing yards as well. We like this bet for a lot of the same reasons we like the Thielen bet, but there are a few other reasons to like this bet as well.
First, the Panthers have struggled to run the ball. They are 25th in rushing offense and have failed to top 100 yards in 4 of their last 5 games. While their season-long passing numbers don’t look any better, they are at least trending in right direction. We can’t say the same about Miles Sanders in the run game, so we expect them to lean on their young franchise signal caller.
Second, this game has sneaky shootout potential with an over/under of 44 points and a competent Colts offense facing the Panthers’ porous defense. The Panthers have been in negative game scripts most of the season, and it’s likely that will happen again this week, which will contribute to a higher volume in the passing game.
After a slow start to his rookie season, Young has looked much better over his last 3 games, not just last week under his new play caller. He has gone over this week’s passing yards prop line in 2 of his last 3 games, and fell just short at 217 in the third one. He’s trending in the right direction and in a good matchup we expect another solid performance from him this week.
As with the Thielen pick, be sure to place this bet at FanDuel where you can get the line 10 yards lower than other sportsbooks, who have it at 231.5 with equivalent odds.
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