Get Colts vs Titans player prop picks & odds for the 12/3/23 matchup.
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Before the season, few would have guessed that these Colts would be pushing for a playoff spot- without top pick Anthony Richardson at quarterback- or that the Titans would be firmly entrenched in the AFC South cellar, but here we are. This one should be all Indy, so let’s take a look at how it might go for rising stars like Josh Downs, Zack Moss, or veteran DeForest Buckner, with some Colts vs. Titans player props for their matchup this Sunday (12/3/23).
Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown (+155) and Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’re gonna double-dip on Downs; consider playing each of these as a half-unit rather than a full play if you don’t want to overexpose yourself to one player’s performance, but he should have a phenomenal game against these Titans. His two scores on 73 total targets are way too low for a receiver of his caliber, especially as one of the featured pieces in an offense that ranks eighth in the NFL in red zone defense.
His yardage prop also presents some phenomenal value against a Titans defense that is truly awful against the pass, ranking 30th in DVOA, 31st in EPA and 29th in success rate against opposing air attacks. Conversely, they’re second, ninth, and sixth in those same metrics against the run, so going to the air is absolutely going to be the best way for Indy to find offensive success in this road game.
The Colts are favored, but just by a point; this isn’t a “run the clock out” type of game, even if Indy leads they’ll be playing full-force offense all the way through. Indy has been the league’s third-fastest offense by seconds per snap, so they’ve made a point of staying up-tempo, which should help Downs stay involved.
The yardage number is a bit deflated as Downs hasn’t cracked it in any of his past three games, but he did in three of his previous four appearances, so he could easily bounce right back. Last game was a positive indicator for his workload- he had 13 targets. He only secured five catches, a ratio that will not be repeated against this horrid pass defense.
Zack Moss Under 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
As we discussed above, the Tennessee run defense has been just as good as their pass defense has been bad. They’ve been giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, as opposing backs have really struggled to move the ball against them almost regardless of the prowess of their own offensive lines. The last running back to crack this number against Tennessee was Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren, who did it four games ago.
In fact, it’s only happened one other time in Tennessee’s 11 games this season; the was Moss himself, who exploded in the Indianapolis edition of this clash back in October. He and Indianapolis’s offensive front aren’t special enough that they should be able to replicate that dominant performance; the Colts’ offensive line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards, as they’ve gotten the job done but haven’t really excelled.
Moss is coming off of a great performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as he picked up 6.9 yards per attempt in the win. That figure was his second-best average from any game this season, and it came against a defense dealing with borderline-catastrophic injuries at the off-ball linebacker position.
If you’ve noticed that I said second-best, rather than the outright top performance, that’s because- you guessed it- he surpassed it in the previous matchup with Tennessee. No, he doesn’t simply have their number; he was bolstered by his longest run of the season, a 56-yarder, and just had a great day. Lightning rarely strikes twice, and this isn’t where I expect that to happen.
DeForest Buckner Over 0.25 Sacks (+115)
For our defensive prop of the day, let’s take a look at a player who has been quietly playing some awesome football, even if his statistical production hasn’t quite been there. D-lineman DeForest Buckner has had a really resurgent season for Indianapolis, as his PFF pass rush grade of 85.6 is the team’s best figure by quite a broad margin. He has 26 pressures other than his five sacks, and a very solid pass rush win rate of 15.2%, so it’s not like he hasn’t been getting to the quarterback; the sacks should come.
Each of his sacks have come in a different game, so he’s hit the over on this prop five times this season. He’s the definitive centerpiece of a Colts pass rush that achieves the 20th-highest pressure rate in the league, which isn’t a crazy number, but they do it while blitzing at the second-lowest rate of any defense in the NFL. That points to the successes of defensive linemen like Buckner, which is supported by their defensive line adjusted sack rate, the league’s fifth-best.
Buckner and the rest of the Indy d-line will be going up against a Titans offensive line that ranks an abysmal 29th in that same metric. The interior line is not a particular strength, as PFF doesn’t label any of the major contributors with a grade over 70 in pass protection. In a game where they should be dropping back plenty, Buckner will have ample opportunity to get past their protection and register a QB takedown.