Get Washington Commanders Vs. Dallas Cowboys player prop picks & odds for the (11/23/23) matchup. This article features selections for players including Tony Pollard, Brian Robinson Jr., Jake Ferguson, and Jahan Dotson.
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Washington Commanders Vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks
In this NFC East divisional Thanksgiving matchup, there are some fascinating players to break down. In this article, I’ll cover some of the player props in this game that I see as offering value. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks as the odds can vary significantly. Check out the Lineups YouTube channel for more coverage of player props from all of the Thanksgiving games. Let’s get to work.
Tony Pollard Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
After a slow stretch of games for Tony Pollard, the Cowboys running back turned a corner in Week 11 with his first touchdown since Week 1. According to TruMedia, Pollard recorded five avoided tackles, and he hadn’t topped three avoided tackles in any of his first eight games of the season. Since Week 9, Pollard ranks third among 47 qualified running backs in explosive run rate.
It’s important to note that Pollard had been under this number in six straight games prior to 61 rushing yards last week, and that’s why I’m avoiding making this an official play on my season-long record. Ultimately, you’re betting on Pollard’s newfound efficiency continuing with the Cowboys as 11-point home favorites, and he could be due for a breakout game here on Turkey day.
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
In his second year in the NFL, Brian Robinson Jr. has become a lynchpin of the Commanders offense, and he has 157 and 131 yards from scrimmage in his last two games played. His rushing production has continued while he has picked up more of the receiving work with Antonio Gibson sidelined.
At the time I’m writing this, there’s a chance Gibson returns this week, but I’m not sure how much it matters. Robinson is 108.5 combined rushing and receiving yards over the last month and there’s no real reason for the Commanders to go away from him given how efficient he has been.
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220 FanDuel)
Jake Ferguson has been a red zone favorite for Dak Prescott this season with a whopping 17 red zone targets – that’s tied for the most in the NFL. Prior to last week, Ferguson had a touchdown in three straight games, and I like him to get back in the end zone here against a shaky Commanders secondary.
As always, make sure you are using the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks as the odds can vary a ton for touchdown props. For example, I’m seeing Ferguson at +220 at FanDuel but at +115 at DraftKings. That’s a huge gap that will add up over time.
Jahan Dotson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+330 DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a touchdown scorer on the Commanders side of the ball, my pick would have to be Jahan Dotson. The second-year wideout has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and is starting to show some of the promise that he showed to close out his rookie season last year.
Cowboys’ cornerback DaRon Bland has had an excellent season, and I expect him to shadow Terry McLaurin here, which would open up more opportunities for Dotson. To close out his rookie season last year, Dotson scored three touchdowns in his final five games, and the hope is that continues here.