Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford as a home game for the Giants. The Commanders are currently a -2.5 favorite and -142 on the moneyline while the total is set at 39.5. Read on for more Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants best bets and predictions as the Commanders look to secure the win by covering the spread.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Prediction & Best Bet
After a shockingly bad performance on Thursday Night Football against the Chicago bears, the Washington Commanders bounced back with an impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons. They did what they do best, abused the opposing offensive line and forced Desmond Ridder into constant pressure situations. As for the Giants, it was another loss for a unit that has nothing going for them. Even against a sleepy Bills squad, failing to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
While the Commanders are certainly not in the same tier as the Buffalo Bills, they do boast a defensive line that is more than capable of abusing the Giants bottom ranked offensive line. Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor under center, expect either quarterback to be in pressure situations. Especially off the edge, negating the quarterback’s chances to bounce to the outside in an attempt to pick up yards with their feet.
That is especially vital for the Commanders if they want to pull out the win as any and all defensive pressure eases the load on their weak secondary. It’s night and day in terms of production between their front seven and back end as the Commanders rank seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate yet 26th in Def Pass EPA and 27th in Def Pass DVOA. It is worth noting that their secondary metrics have improved since benching their rookie Emmanuel Forbes, a hyper aggressive man corner who has been routinely beaten by trying to jump routes.
As for the Commanders offense, it should be business as usual for Sam Howell and company as the Giants defense serves as no threat. The Giants generate little to no pressure while blitzing at the fourth highest rate, leaving their middle exposed for Sam Howell to exploit. Especially as the Commanders transition to a more conservative offense, relying on more cross routes and dump offs to get their playmakers out in the open field.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Prediction & Best Bet: Commanders -2.5
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Betting Odds
Even after a rough start to the year, oddsmakers have leaned towards the Giants favor by opening them as a questionable -2.5 favorite. Bettors were very quick to flip the script by betting the Commanders all the way to -3 in some shops as of writing. Washington has a massive advantage in the trenches, being more than capable of disrupting the Giants offense.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a sluggish pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 42.5. Bettors believe that number opened a tad too high, backing the under down to 37.5. This sits right below the key number of 38, showing slight value to the over in what may be an overreaction to two anemic offenses.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Key Injuries
It’s a tale of two different injury reports as the Commanders face question marks on defense with Montez Sweat and Kendall Fuller being listed as questionable while four of the five starting offensive linemen for the Giants are questionable as well.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Key Matchups
Can Brian Robinson Jr find success on the ground against the Giants front seven?
Brian Robinson Jr Vs. Giants Front Seven
After a hot start to the season, Brian Robinson’s rush production has been tempered and has forced the Commanders into a heavier dose of the pass. Playing from behind in their past few games have forced them into a heavier dose of the pass as well, relying on the improving arm of Sam Howell.
THERE GOES THAT MAN BRIAN ROBINSON JR!
— The Athletes Plug (@TheAthletesPlug) October 15, 2023
With that said, Brian Robinson is poised for a bounce back opportunity as he gets the privilege to run wild on a Giants defense that ranks 30th in Def Rush DVOA, 28th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 31st in Def Rush EPA. The Success Rate metric is especially intriguing, giving the Commanders an opportunity to cut the distance in half to set up easier conversions on later downs in an effort to keep moving the sticks.