On Sunday (11/5/23), the Washington Commanders face the New England Patriots where the Patriots will be 3-point home favorites. In this article, find Commanders Vs. Patriots predictions where our best bet will be the Commanders +3.
Washington Commanders Vs. New England Patriots Prediction
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is coming off an impressive showing with 397 passing yards and four touchdowns, and he’s having a solid season across the board. Howell ranks 15th in EPA+CPOE composite while picking up a 5.2% big-time throw rate, the tenth-highest in the league per PFF.
A road date with the Patriots isn’t always an ideal spot for a young passer, but this version of the New England defense isn’t scaring anyone – they’re 30th in passing EPA allowed over the past month as edge Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, their top two defenders, have been on Injured Reserve.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, meanwhile, leads the NFL with 17 turnover-worthy plays, constantly undermining any potential success the offense might have. New England ranks 29th in passing EPA this season. Luckily for Jones, he should have a clean pocket with an offensive line improving in health facing a Commanders defense that ranks middle of the pack in pressure rate.
Washington traded away its top pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat this week, but interior rushers Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne remain with a combined 45 pressures. Even if their pressure rate goes down, I don’t have much confidence in Mac Jones consistently beating this secondary, especially without a consistent run game as the Patriots rank 27th in rushing EPA.
If the best number you can find at the time you’re writing this is 2.5, I’d pass on a straight bet on the Commanders ATS. Instead, you can look to use Washington as a teaser piece from +2.5 up to +8.5. I bet Washington +3.5, but at 3, I’m still taking the key number with the underdog in a game where I have both teams power rated very evenly.
Washington Commanders Vs. New England Patriots Prediction: Commanders +3
Washington Commanders Vs. New England Patriots Best Odds
The Patriots currently sit as favorites of 2.5 or 3 points depending on the sportsbook you are using, and the line has bounced around after sitting at 3.5 earlier in the week. Meanwhile, the over/under is at 41 after opening as low as 39. Keep in mind that 3 is a very key number when betting spreads.
Washington Commanders Vs. New England Patriots Key Injuries
The Patriots have dealt with offensive line injuries all season, and while they’ve gotten healthier, offensive tackle Trent Brown is questionable. Wide receiver DeVante Parker also suffered a concussion last week while Kendrick Bourne hit the IR with a season-ending ACL tear. Washington, meanwhile, will be without wide receiver Curtis Samuel this week.
Washington Commanders Vs. New England Patriots Key Matchups
While neither the Commanders nor Patriots are pushing for title contention this season, they do have some intriguing players that will help determine the outcome of this game. Let’s break down some of the key matchups.
Demario Douglas Vs. Commanders’ Secondary
It’s next man up for the Patriots at wide receiver with Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker out, and I’m expecting to see a lot of Demario Douglas. The sixth-round rookie was benched for a fumble earlier in the year, but he has a total of nine catches for 79 yards over the past two weeks. The Liberty product could serve a featured role this week.
The Commanders have struggled against slot receivers all season, allowing 8.6 yards per target, which ranks 25th. Fellow rookie Kayshon Boutte will also be heavily involved, but I’d be looking to target Douglas’s props in this game as he could break out in a massive way on Sunday.
Douglas saw a 20% target share in Week 7 with Juju out…
Career high 74 total yards including a 20 yard rush…
Could Douglas be the spark this Pats offense has been looking for?
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) October 27, 2023
Terry McLaurin Vs. J.C. Jackson
New Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has implemented a modern, pass heavy offense, and it has featured Terry McLaurin. With Curtis Samuel out of the lineup this week, expect even more of a target share for McLaurin in what looks to be a decent matchup for a banged up New England secondary that ranks 27tth against the pass by EPA.
With injuries mounting in the cornerback room, the Patriots traded for their former cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was struggling after signing a big deal with the Chargers in free agency. Jackson ranks 125th out of 126 qualified cornerbacks this season with a dreadful 34.1 PFF coverage grade.
Sam Howell (11) to Terry McLaurin (2)
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) October 29, 2023