Washington Commanders Vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (11/23/23)

On Thursday (11/23/23), the Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Commanders in a special Thanksgiving NFC East affair. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and a full matchup preview. In addition, find our Commanders Vs. Cowboys best bet, which is the Commanders +11.

Washington Commanders Vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction

The Cowboys sit at 7-3 this season, and they’ve been on the right end of several blowouts, with their seven wins coming by an average of 25 points. Odds makers are expecting another blowout win for the Cowboys this week as they host the Commanders as 11-point favorites, but I believe Washington can cover this big spread.

The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing loss to a decimated Giants team starting third-string rookie UDFA Tommy DeVito at quarterback. However, Washington was very unlucky in the game, as six turnovers ruined their chances despite outgaining the Giants by over 100 yards and 15 first downs.

Sam Howell had one of his worst games of the season, with three interceptions and a season-low 5.7 yards per attempt. However, Howell had eight touchdowns to just two interceptions over his prior three games, and I’ve been impressed with his growth under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy.

Howell is also starting to do a much better job of feeling pressure and not taking sacks. His pressure-to-sack rate of 14% is the 11th-lowest over the past month of action. Compare that to a 35.8% rate that led the NFL over the first seven weeks of the year. That evolution is huge against a Dallas defense that leads the NFL in pass rush win rate, per ESPN.

The Cowboys’ offense has been excellent this season, and they won’t be easy to slow down. Dallas ranks fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play, while Dak Prescott is quietly putting up MVP numbers with 19 touchdowns to just six interceptions and ranks fourth in the league with a 104.4 passer rating. He and CeeDee Lamb have displayed tremendous chemistry week after week.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera has been incredibly profitable as a divisional dog, going 24-15-2 ATS (61.5%) in his career in that spot. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have gone 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Thanksgiving games. I never advise blindly betting trends, but it makes sense that Dallas has seen some inflated spreads in these central-stage Thanksgiving games.

I’ll back Howell and the Commanders on what I perceive to be an inflated +13.5 spread, although I’d recommend starting with a smaller wager at +13.5 and adding more live with a target of +14 or better. The back door should stay open here with Howell delivering a late score to secure our Thanksgiving cash.

Commanders Vs. Cowboys Prediction: Commanders +13.5

Commanders Vs. Cowboys Best Odds

The spread for this game sees the Cowboys as 11-point home favorites with an over/under of 48.5 points. That leads to an implied score of around 30-19 in favor of Dallas. The total has gone over in nine of the Cowboys’ last 13 Thanksgiving games.

Commanders Vs. Cowboys Key Injuries

The Cowboys are relatively healthy heading into this game, especially after wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was removed from the injury report with his ankle ailment. The Commanders, however, could be without rookie cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin, both of whom are listed as questionable. Running back Antonio Gibson is also listed as questionable after missing last week’s game.

Commanders Vs. Cowboys Key Matchups

When the Commanders and Cowboys renew divisional hostilities on Thursday, there are some intriguing matchups to take stock of. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will determine who covers the spread on Thanksgiving.

Dak Prescott Vs. Commanders Pass Defense

Since Week 5, Dak Prescott is the second-ranked quarterback in the NFL per EPA+CPOE composite. Prescott is playing MVP-level football week after week, and while I was concerned about the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Prescott has been thriving under head coach Mike McCarthy as the play caller.

A big storyline entering this game will be how the Commanders traded away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline, but that opened the door for young players to step up and Washington nearly tied a franchise record with nine sacks of Tommy DeVito last week.

Brian Robinson Jr. Vs. Cowboys Run Defense

The Commanders will need to establish their rushing attack in this game to help keep pressure off Sam Howell, and Brian Robinson Jr. has been playing quite well lately. Over the last two weeks, Robinson is averaging 147.5 yards from scrimmage per game as he’s been involved as a rusher and receiver.

The Cowboys rank 26th in run stop win rate and have been vulnerable against the run at times this season, which could be problematic against Robinson. The Commanders could be forced to abandon the run depending on the game flow, but Robinson should remain involved regardless of whether it’s through the air or on the ground.

Washington Commanders Depth Chart

QB: Sam Howell
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas

Dallas Cowboys Depth Chart

QB: Dak Prescott
RB1: Tony Pollard
RB2: Rico Dowdle
LWR: CeeDee Lamb
RWR: Michael Gallup
SWR: Brandin Cooks
TE1: Jake Ferguson

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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