Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks: NFL Player Props & Picks (11/12/23)

By Noah Rosenstein | Nov 10, 2023, 1:19pm | Updated: 10 months ago

Get Commanders vs. Seahawks player prop picks & odds for the (11/12/23) matchup

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Commanders vs. Seahawks Player Prop Picks

The Seattle Seahawks (5-3) host the Washington Commanders (4-5) this Sunday (11/12/23) at 4:25pm ET in week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. The Seahawks are betting favorites at -6.5 against the spread while the over/under is set at 44.5 points. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Commanders vs. Seahawks player prop bets.

Sam Howell over 36.5 passing attempts (-110 at BetMGM)

Under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, the Commanders are the pass-heaviest team in the league this season. They are passing the ball on a league-high 65.2% of their offensive plays, and Howell is leading the league with 39.2 passing attempts per game.

Some of that is by design, as Bieniemy has a very pass-heavy offensive philosophy. Some of it is also due to game script, as the Commanders have one of the worst defenses in the league this season (29th in DVOA, 28th in EPA) and they have frequently been playing from behind. That is likely to be the case in this game against a Seahawks defense that is top 10 in offensive DVOA.

Howell has thrown over 40 passes in three consecutive games and five of his last six games. He has gone over his passing attempts prop in all of those games and in 7 out of 9 games total this season. Quarterbacks facing the Seahawks have gone over their passing attempts prop line in 6 out of 8 games this season, and Joe Burrow only missed his number by 2.

Betting on Howell’s passing volume has been one of the best player prop bets every week this season, and that will continue this week.

Antonio Gibson over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Howell’s incredible passing volume creates plenty of opportunities for his pass catchers, and Antonio Gibson has been his primary receiving back this season. While Brian Robinson Jr. was getting involved in the passing game early in the season, that role has fully shifted toward Gibson over the last few weeks. He has over 20 receiving yards in 3 straight games and 4 of his last 5, and has gone over his receiving yards prop line in all of those games. He also has back-to-back games with at least 5 receptions.

It also could help Gibson that Curtis Samuel is banged up right now and questionable for this game with a toe injury. The Commanders create a few opportunities every game to get the ball into Samuel’s hands in space to allow him to use his speed and shiftiness to create plays. Gibson is the most likely candidate to fill that role if Samuel is out or limited this week.

The Seahawks have been right around league average at defending pass-catching running backs this season. They are allowing 4.5 receptions for 30.9 yards to opposing backs, which both fall in the middle of the pack. They also could be missing LB Jordyn Brooks for this game, who has been their top coverage linebacker this season.

There are plenty of reasons to feel good about Gibson gaining at least 17 yards through the air this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 39.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)

While we are high on the Commanders’ passing offense in this game based purely on expected volume, we are also high on the Seahawks’ passing offense based mainly on the matchup. The Commanders are allowing the 5th most passing yards per game (252.7) and are tied for the 3rd most net yards per attempt allowed (6.6). They are also 29th in DVOA and 30th in EPA against the pass.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been heating up over his last 4 games as he gets more comfortable in the offense and gets further removed from the wrist injury that sidelined him in the preseason. He is averaging 52.5 receiving yards over the last 4 games and had season highs in targets (7), catches (6) and yards (63) last week against Baltimore.

The Commanders have yielded solid games to two other rookie wide receivers in the last three weeks. The Patriots’ Demario Douglas had 55 yards against them last week while the Giants’ Jalin Hyatt had 75 yards three weeks ago. Smith-Njigba is better than both of those players and has a more reliable quarterback getting him the ball. We love his chances to meet or exceed those numbers in this game.

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Noah Rosenstein

Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.