Connecticut vs Villanova: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/11/22)

Connecticut vs Villanova Betting Odds

The Wildcats took a huge scare Thursday night, having to mount a huge second-half comeback to knock off St. John’s. It was a totally unexpected offensive performance, but Villanova righted the ship and got a gutsy one-point victory.

Meanwhile, UConn absolutely trucked Seton Hall. The short-handed Pirates have been fading all season, but the Huskies handled an inferior team with ease – and that’s important.

Tonight, this will be a whole different challenge. These two split the season series, with both teams winning at home. UConn has proven it can hang with the best teams in the nation, including having a win against Auburn on its resume.

Can the Huskies do it again tonight? Or at least cover the short spread?

Connecticut Huskies Odds

The Huskies crash the boards unlike any team in the nation.

Connecticut led the Big East in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate this season, but it was particularly active on the offensive boards. The Huskies outrebounded Seton Hall 46-to-33, grabbing a whopping 18 offensive rebounds in the meanwhile.

The Huskies are frisky on the boards and love to protect the rim, pacing the conference in block rate this season.

Offensively, RJ Cole has been a godsend. He’s not a point guard to be considered with the likes of Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier, but he’s close. He was the highest-usage player on the Huskies this season, and he recorded over a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio – racking up 4.3 assists per game in the process.

He’s a playmaker first, but he can always score in big moments.

Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin will be particularly active on the offensive end, as always. Those two are Dan Hurley’s best offensive rebounders, and both present unique matchup challenges for anybody trying to defend them.

Villanova Wildcats Odds

That was a close one.

Villanova trailed St. John’s by 17 at one point, with just under two minutes left in the first half. The Wildcats could not handle the aggressive Johnnies press. But Gillespie and co. eventually figured it out, Jay Wright made adjustments, and the Wildcats handled business.

Villanova likely won’t run into that problem against Connecticut. Hurley doesn’t really like to press, and the Huskies were ninth in the conference in defensive turnover rate this season.

UConn will present unique problems with their size, as Villanova is reliant on perimeter offense with lots of shooters. If Gillespie and co. try to drive, they could get in trouble, as the Wildcats were eighth in the Big East in offensive block rate.

That should prove to be the difference in this game. In the win over UConn, ‘Nova shot 23-for-38 (60.8%) from 2-point range. In the loss, just 9-for-19 (47.4%).

To be fair, the Wildcats were extremely short-handed in the road loss to UConn. Villanova played just seven players in that game, with the seventh man recording only six minutes.

Connecticut vs Villanova Prediction and Pick

My pick: Villanova -4.5 or better, under 130.5 or better

After shooting just 9-for-29 from 3 and recording 13 turnovers, I’m looking for a big bounce-back game from Villanova in this spot.

As mentioned, the turnovers won’t be an issue. Villanova will have all the time in the world to run its slow-paced offense and find the best shot. Wright will make sure his team is ready to do just that.

Connecticut runs at a very slow pace too, however, ranking 284th in tempo. Coach Hurley and RJ Cole should be ready to be very deliberate on offense, and hopefully, that will lead to solid possessions for the Huskies.

Because both teams will play so slow, I’m eyeing the under in this matchup. I especially like it because both teams shot the lights out from 3 in the prior two matchups. In those two games, Villanova and UConn shot a combined 33-for-74 from 3, good for a 45% clip. I’d look for some regression in those numbers.

Give me Villanova to grind out a Rock Fight and make its way to the finals.