Connecticut vs Xavier: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/11/22)

Connecticut vs Xavier Betting Odds

Fridays are generally slow in the college hoops world. However, the Big East has blessed us with one major Friday night matchup to bet on.

Connecticut comes into this matchup off a big home victory over Marquette. The win took UConn to 7-4 in Big East play at 16-6- overall.

However, that record isn’t entirely indicative of how good the Huskies are. Connecticut has been dealing with injury issues that have limited the performance of the team.

Meanwhile, Xavier is struggling a bit. The Musketeers have suffered two straight losses to fall to 6-6 in conference play. The Musketeers are still expected to grab an at-large bid, but Xavier would like so more wins.

But can they pull it off against a great UConn team?

Connecticut Huskies Odds

UConn is a physically imposing team that lives on the interior (255th highest 3-point rate; 23rd lowest 3-point rate allowed) and lives on the offensive boards (second in offensive rebounding rate).

Connecticut is also dominating on the interior on defense. The Huskies are fifth nationally in 2-point defense (41.5%) and fifth nationally in block rate (16.7%).

Tyrese Martin and Adama Sanogo do most of the cleaning up on the interior. The two also combine for 29 points per game.

So, when those two got hurt in early December, it took a toll on the Huskies program.

However, both have been available in February, and it doesn’t explain losses to Creighton and Villanova.

Losing to Villanova is okay – it’s almost expected in the Big East. However, the Creighton game was a lack of offense. Connecticut finished with .86 points per possession that game, shooting a measly 20-for-67 (29%) from the field.

I guess the question is: How much can we trust Connecticut?

The Huskies are in line for a seven seed but are also just 3-5 in Quad 1 opportunities. Connecticut is also the only team this season to have beaten Auburn.

I think the most important thing about Connecticut is that it has no bad losses. You can trust the Huskies to show up for every single game, and it won’t have a down night.

That could be valuable come March.

Xavier Musketeers Odds

Unlike Connecticut, Xavier does have some bad losses on its resume.

Specifically, DePaul. A shorthanded DePaul team walked into Cincinnati and dominated Xavier on the interior in a 69-65 win. That hurt the Xavier brand significantly.

However, Xavier is also 4-5 in Quad 1 opportunities and has picked up wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Marquette. The Musketeers also did what UConn couldn’t do – beat Creighton twice.

Xavier is a very similar team to UConn. The Musketeers are lengthy and imposing on the interior, running everything through 6-foot-5 point guard Paul Scruggs and 7-foot-0 center Jack Nunge.

Xavier is also pesky defensively. In the conference-only play, the Musketeers are first in defensive rebounding rate and second in defensive turnover rate. However, they’re also ninth in defensive effective field goal percentage.

Unfortunately, a lot of that is on the interior. Xavier is 10th in Big East play in 2-point defense (51.5%), which could present problems against this Connecticut front.

Connecticut vs Xavier Prediction and Pick

My pick: Xavier -1 (-115 at DraftKings)

This is a good bounce-back spot for Xavier after a tough loss at Seton Hall. Meanwhile, we’re hoping we can catch UConn in a letdown spot after taking down Marquette and cover a six-point spread.

Xavier has also been strong at home this season, winning 11 of its 14 opportunities in Cincinnati – including victories over Ohio State and Marquette.

Xavier is also desperately trying to hold on to its No. 25 AP Ranking, and a home loss here would surely bounce them out. Xavier is also on the verge of grabbing a five-seed in the tournament.

Getting Xavier at -1 is a small enough spread for me, and I’ll be playing the Musketeers at anything better than -1.5.