Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/15/23)

The Dallas Cowboys face the Los Angeles Chargers in Monday Night Football (10/16/23). Get Cowboys vs. Chargers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Cowboys vs. Chargers game?

Keenan Allen First TD (+1000 BMGM) 

The Chargers have scored the first touchdown in all four of their games this season due to their explosive offense. 43.2 percent of their drives have resulted in a score, and they rank 4th in expected points added per play (EPA per play). Los Angeles is coming off of a bye, so they will be well-rested and hyper-prepared for Dallas. 

Keenan Allen is the top receiving option in this offense. The veteran leads Los Angeles in targets, receptions, yards, red zone targets, and receiving touchdowns. Mike Williams’ injury significantly slashes his competition, while Austin Ekeler’s return forces Dallas to rush defenders towards the line of scrimmage. Overall, Allen is Herbert’s go-to target, especially in the red zone. He must score first about 9 percent of the time based on the odds.

Donald Parham Jr First TD (+2500 BMGM) 

Parham is quietly tied with Allen at three receiving touchdowns, and he owns five red zone targets so far (one less than Allen). The massive 6’8” tight end is a monstrous jump-ball threat, which always bodes well for end zone usage. 

He’s essentially the third option behind Allen and Ekeler, so snagging +2500 is incredible regardless of matchup. Based on those odds, he only needs to score the first touchdown about 3 percent of the time.

CeeDee Lamb First TD (+1100 BMGM)

On the other hand, Los Angeles’ defense is far from effective, especially their secondary. They rank 28th in opponent dropback EPA per play, 25th in opponent dropback success rate, 27th in PFF’s coverage grade, 29th in opponent net yards gained per pass attempt, and are allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. 

Lamb has only found the end zone once this season, but it’s a perfect matchup for the star receiver. He also voiced his frustrations recently with his usage, and I expect Dallas to respond by reasonably feeding their top option. 

Lamb needs to score first about 8 percent of the time. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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