Get Cowboys vs. Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (11/05/23) matchup
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Cowboys vs. Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Philadelphia Eagles (7-1) play host to the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) this Sunday (11/05/23) in a huge NFC East divisional showdown. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Cowboys vs. Eagles player prop bets.
CeeDee Lamb 90+ alt receiving yards (+136 at FanDuel)
A.J. Brown is getting all the hype entering this matchup, and rightfully so, as he is riding an NFL record streak of six consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards. But CeeDee Lamb is also having a fantastic season and he has a huge advantage in this matchup.
Lamb lines up all over the formation, but he plays most often from the slot. He has played 67% of his snaps from the slot this season, which is the most since his rookie season, per data from Pro Football Focus. He is currently 7th in the league in receiving yards from the slot with 267 this season after leading the league in that category last year.
The Eagles’ defense is most vulnerable over the middle of the field where slot receivers typically operate, and they are very banged up at the slot corner position. Week 1 starter Avonte Maddox is out for the season, and the Eagles had primarily 1st and 2nd year undrafted players backing him up. After those players did not perform well following Maddox’s injury, they signed veteran Bradley Roby to help shore up that position, but Roby has missed the last 2 games and has already been ruled out for this game.
That means the Eagles are likely to use some combination of Josiah Scott, rookie safety Sydney Brown, or undrafted rookie Eli Ricks as their slot corner this week. Their starting safeties could also help in the slot, and it’s also possible that starting outside corners Darius Slay or James Bradberry could shift inside on some plays, but neither is well suited for that role.
No matter who lines up over Lamb in the slot, the receiver is going to have a huge matchup advantage. When these teams last played on Christmas Eve last year, Maddox left the game early with an injury, and Lamb subsequently lined up almost exclusively in the slot. He absolutely torched whoever was covering him and finished with 10 catches on 11 targets for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns.
CeeDee Lamb with a big TD from Dak Prescott
Avonte Maddox wasn’t in there. He left after getting hurt
Eagles are down 14 to 10
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) December 24, 2022
Lamb enters this game coming off back-to-back 100+ yard games and he just set new career highs with 12 receptions and 158 receiving yards last week against the Rams. He may not approach those same numbers this week, but we love his chances to get close to 100 yards once again. His regular prop line is 76.5 receiving yards this week, but we feel so good about his role in this offense and his advantages in this matchup that we’d prefer to play the alt line of 90+ yards to get the much more attractive plus odds.
Dak Prescott over 250.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s go ahead and pair that CeeDee Lamb pick with the over on his quarterback’s passing yards.
Prescott has looked outstanding over his last 2 games after the embarrassment of his week 5 performance against San Francisco (14-for-24, 153 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTS). In his 2 games since then he has completed 75.4% of his passes for 576 yards and 5 touchdowns versus just 1 interception. He leads all QBs in EPA per play over that span.
Prescott also tends to step up his game against the Eagles. In that Christmas Eve game last year, he went 27-for-35 (77.14%) for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception. The year before in 2 starts he went 42-for-53 (79.24%) for 533 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (although one of those games came in week 18 against Eagles backups).
We also expect the Cowboys to be very pass-heavy in this game, as the Eagles’ defense is leading in run defense, allowing just 65.5 yards per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA while they are 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Cowboys have struggled to run the ball with Tony Pollard this season (23rd in rush offense DVOA) and that is likely to continue this week, so Prescott will be forced into a high volume of passing attempts.
Prescott has gone over 250 yards passing in 4 of his 7 games this season and we love his chances to do that again this week. If you want to tail this pick, be sure to place the bet at FanDuel, where you can get it at this line of 250.5, while most other books have the line at 255.5 as of this writing. We like either number, but we’ll certainly take the 5 extra yards of cushion considering the odds are identical.
D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rushing attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
There are plenty of other great options for player prop bets in this game. We also suggest looking at Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson, who has been playing well and has a good matchup against an Eagles team that always struggles against tight ends. We also like Jalen Hurts to hit the over on his passing yards prop (253.5) for the 7th consecutive game, and we like the Hurts under on his rushing yards (28.5) because he’s been playing it much safer on the ground recently due to a knee injury.
However, the prop bet we like the best is betting on volume for Eagles RB D’Andre Swift. Running the ball is the most effective way to attack the Cowboys’ defense, which is the most vulnerable aspect of their defense. They are 4th against the pass but just 17th against the run. While they are top 10 in both DVOA and EPA against the run, they are 30th in success rate, meaning the Eagles should be able to pick up consistent yardage on the ground.
After inexplicably getting only 1 carry in week 1 this season, Swift has at least 14 carries in 6 of his last 7 games. The one game he didn’t was against the Jets, who were missing both starting cornerbacks and the Eagles tried to exploit that instead of maintaining a balanced (which backfired and contributed to their only loss of the season). They seem to have learned their lesson and won’t let that happen again, so you can safely expect a consistent volume of work for Swift in this game.
Of course if he gets that type of volume, then he’s also likely to go over his yardage prop of 56.5 yards, which he’s done in 5 out of 7 games. But at close to even money, you can get better odds by focusing on his carries instead.