Dallas Cowboys Vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (12/17/23)
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Get Cowboys vs Bills NFL player prop picks & odds for their (12/17/23) matchup.
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It’s not often that a regular season game between teams from different conferences has a “playoff-like” feel to it, but that’s exactly what’s coming our way this Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Buffalo Bills. This game is absolutely vital for both highly talented squads, as the Cowboys are fighting to maintain their spot atop the NFC East, while it’s going to take everything the Bills can muster just to make the AFC playoffs.
Josh Allen and Dak Prescott have been playing like two of the league’s best quarterbacks, so let’s look at some Cowboys vs. Bills player props for the (12/17/23) matchup, featuring these two star passers and a few other key contributors.
Dak Prescott Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Finally, the majority of the NFL-following world has begun to realize what has been true for quite some time now; Dak Prescott is the rightful 2023 MVP frontrunner. He’s the top quarterback in PFF’s system, and sits behind only Brock Purdy on the passer rating list amongst qualified QBs. Most importantly, he’s gotten his turnover issues under control in a huge way as he’s thrown just six picks on 450 attempts, compared to 28 touchdowns.
Dak was just below this number in a blowout win against the Eagles, in which he didn’t really need to push the ball downfield for four quarters. In a hostile environment against a very good Bills team, he will likely need to do so more frequently, giving him the chance to rack up some nice volume. Even in that Eagles game, he threw for 271 yards, finishing just below this number, and he cracked it in five of his six previous games. The game before that one, he threw for 272, so he’s been right around this number, or far past it, in almost every game for over two months.
The Bills pass defense, which is still just about average by DVOA, has improved in recent weeks, but does so based in large part off of success in pressuring quarterbacks. That might not work against Dak; according to PFF, nobody has handled pressure better than him this year. The secondary, missing Tre’Davious White, has few answers for the fantastic CeeDee Lamb, as star corner Rasul Douglas is not likely to follow him into the slot.
If Dallas wins, it’s likely because Prescott had a big day. If they lose, expect him to be throwing the ball a tremendous amount of times- with this prop, it’s hard to go wrong in either scenario.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) and Over 298.5 Pass + Rush Yards (-115)
Prescott isn’t the only quarterback in this game who’s been playing some awesome football. Allen’s traditional numbers may not be as pretty, but his turnover-worthy play rate has positively plummeted compared to last season, signaling a massive improvement regarding his greatest flaw.
To win this game, the Bills will need another star performance from Allen, which will likely include a ground score. He’s rushed for 10 touchdowns this season, already a career high, and has scored in nine of his past 11 games. That stretch includes touchdowns in high-end battles against the Eagles and Chiefs- this game against another contender could have a similar script, as against a talented pass rush, Allen could be put in challenging situations where his athleticism is the best solution.
Allen should have no issue scoring against a Dallas defense that has been weirdly mediocre in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on around 58% of opponent trips inside their 20 yard line. That figure ranks just 22nd in the league, so they could be vulnerable to Allen as a runner, one of the most imposing red zone threats in the league.
We’ll also grab Allen’s total yardage prop. To win this shootout, Buffalo is going to have to lean on their star quarterback. It’s hard to know whether Allen will make his biggest impact through the air or on the ground against a Dallas defense that defends both well, but the offense will certainly go through him. Like rationale on the Prescott prop, the Bills are not likely to win without a big day from Allen, and he could pick up plenty of desperation yardage in a loss; in a shootout like this one could be, he’s bound to produce.
Jordan Poyer Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Poyer, one of the leaders of Buffalo’s secondary, should have his hands full with a robust downfield Dallas passing game. He’s only been over this number in five of his 12 appearances this year, but he’s had exactly five combined stops in two other contests, so he was knocking right on the door in those as well.
As a solid run-stopper, Poyer should be very involved in this game no matter how the Cowboys approach it. This game should be full of offense, with plenty of long drives and thus opportunities to make plays. With Prescott averaging the league’s seventh-highest depth of target, plenty of plays should make it to the back end of the secondary, giving Poyer a heap of opportunities to rack up stats.
Brandon Aubrey and Tyler Bass over 2.5 Extra Points Made (Both -115)
It’s simple enough; this is a game script play. We’ve fleshed out the likelihood that this game ends up being a shootout, so let’s essentially invest in touchdowns. Buffalo’s red zone offense is the league’s second best, so going up against a Dallas defense that has not excelled in that part of the field, they should be fine. The Cowboys’ own red zone offense and the Bills’ defense in that area are both average, both of which mean well over 50% conversion for the offense- plenty of touchdowns should be en route.
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