Cubs vs. Yankees: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (7/7/23)

Carlos Rodón makes his Yankees debut on Friday night at Yankee Stadium against the Cubs. The Yankees are heavy betting favorites at -175 on the moneyline, while the Cubs are at +150. The over/under is at 8 runs with -120 odds on the over and +100 odds on the under. The prediction here is that the Yankees win and the total stays under 8 runs.

Cubs vs. Yankees Prediction

Starting pitchers: RHP Jameson Taillon (2-6, 6.93 ERA) vs. LHP Carlos Rodón (season debut)

At long last, the Yankees will get to see prized offseason acquisition Carlos Rodón wearing the pinstripes at Yankee Stadium.

Carlos Rodon is finally ready to make his Yankees debut. 🙏 https://t.co/HRWEseON63 pic.twitter.com/f57Ku28kjg

— theScore (@theScore) July 6, 2023

Rodón signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees this offseason after back-to-back seasons in which he made the All-Star team and finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. Over those two seasons he made 55 starts and had a 2.67 ERA and 0.998 WHIP.

Rodón’s Yankees debut was delayed when he went on the IL during spring training with a left elbow strain and back tightness. Now the question that looms is what version of Rodón we will see tonight.

One thing that seems certain is that the Yankees will play it safe with their new top-of-the-rotation arm and will likely limit his pitch count to something around 75 pitches. In his final rehab start on Saturday, Rodón threw 58 pitches (38 strikes) and struck out eight batters over 3-2/3 scoreless innings.

I don’t expect a dominant performance, but I do expect Rodón to pitch well in his debut, and the Cubs are unlikely to offer much resistance. Their 99 wRC+ is 20th this season they have been even worse over the last month, having posted an 89 wRC+ since June 1. They are also likely to be missing Dansby Swanson from the lineup, and Nick Madrigal also remains out.

The Yankees have also struggled at the plate over the last month, thanks largely to the absence of 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge, who has been on the IL since June 3. With Judge out, they have posted an 83 wRC+ (27th).

The Bronx Bombers do get a good matchup today against their former teammate, Jameson Taillon, whose performance has declined steeply this season. He has a dreadful 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his last five starts (26-2/3 innings) and has allowed 8 home runs over that span.

Despite those numbers, I expect Taillon to have a decent outing against his former club, mainly due to the Yankees’ struggles against righties. But the Yankees will still have more success than the Cubs’ lineup against Rodón, so I am taking the Yankees’ moneyline despite the steep odds.

Given these lineups’ recent struggles and the injuries, I am also going to take the under at the appealing +100 odds.

Cubs vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-175), under 8 runs (+100)

Cubs vs. Yankees Odds

The Yankees opened with -165 moneyline odds that got as low as -190 at one point and settled in at -175. The Cubs’ moneyline odds opened at +140 and are now +150.

The Yankees are laying -1.5 on the spread at +118 odds, while the Cubs are getting +1.5 at -141.

The over/under opened at 8.5 and dropped to 8, with -120 odds on the over and +100 odds on the under.

Cubs vs. Yankees Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Cubs vs. Yankees.

Carlos Rodón vs. rust
This game hinges a lot on what Rodón looks like in his Yankees debut. If he struggles to hit his spots or doesn’t have his high 90s velocity, that could be troublesome for my picks of the Yankees moneyline and under 8 runs in my Cubs vs. Yankees prediction.

But if Rodón comes out looking sharp, the Cubs do not have the bats to do much damage against him, and we should be looking at a low-scoring Yankees victory. Rodón reportedly looked good and his velocity was up during his last rehab start, so I am optimistic he will have a good outing tonight.

Jameson Taillon vs. (almost) all righties
Part of the reason I expect Taillon to have a decent outing is that the Yankees have been dreadful against right-handed pitchers without Aaron Judge. Prior to Judge’s injury, the Yankees had a 102 wRC+ against both righties and lefties, but since June 4 they have just a 74 wRC+ against righties (29th).

The Yankees’ lineup is dominated by right-handed hitters. Among their everyday players, only Anthony Rizzo and Jake Bauers hit from the left side, and Bauers is currently dealing with a shoulder injury and is unlikely to be in the lineup today.

This should set up for Taillon to be able to improve on his recent performances, and if he does that would be another great sign for the under hitting.

Cubs vs. Yankees Starting Lineups (Projected)

Cubs Starting Lineup
DH Mike Tauchman (L)
SS Nico Hoerner (R)
LF Ian Happ (S)
RF Seiya Suzuki (R)
2B Christopher Morel (R)
CF Cody Bellinger (L)
1B Trey Mancini (R)
C Yan Gomes (R)
3B Patrick Wisdom (R)

Yankees Starting Lineup
SS Anthony Volpe (R)
2B Gleyber Torres (R)
DH Anthony Rizzo (L)
RF Giancarlo Stanton (R)
CF Harrison Bader (R)
3B Josh Donaldson (R)
1B DJ LeMahieu (R)
LF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)
C Jose Trevino (R)