Dallas Cowboys Vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (12/24/23)
Get Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the (12/24/23) matchup
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
In one of the biggest games of the week, two of the NFL’s top Super Bowl contenders will face off as the Cowboys travel to South Florida to take on the Dolphins. Dallas is looking for a bounce back after a blowout loss to the Bills while Miami is looking to maintain their lead in the AFC East despite a rash of injuries.
In this article, I’ll cover some of my favorite player prop looks in this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds available for whichever prop you select. Check out the Lineups YouTube page for more player prop coverage from the entire Week 16 slate. Let’s get to work.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
It’s never fun fading one of the most high-octane passing offenses in the NFL, but I believe this game calls for it. The Dolphins could be down their entire starting offensive line – they’ll at least be without all three starters on the interior – and that’s a huge issue against a Dallas team that leads the NFL in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN.
Arguably no quarterback is more affected by pressure than Tua Tagovailoa, as evidenced by the following stats:
- Completion rate: 77.6% when kept clean, 43.2% when under pressure
- Yards per attempt: 9.4 when kept clean, 5.7 when under pressure
- Passer rating: 117.5 when kept clean, 60.1 when under pressure
Add in the injury to Tyreek Hill, and I don’t see this being a ceiling game for Tagovailoa. He’s been under this number in three of his last four games and the Cowboys have allowed just 176.9 passing yards per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and they rank top six in DVOA against the pass.
Raheem Mostert Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
With the Dolphins likely having issues with pass protection and Tagovailoa likely not having a prolific game against Dallas’s pass defense, I’d expect a heavier dose of the run game this week. While De’Von Achane is now back in the lineup, Mostert has still averaged 17 touches per game since Week 13 with Achane active. Mostert has hit the over on his line in four of his last six games overall.
The Cowboys’ run defense has slipped lately, and they have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL since Week 10. Mostert ranks seventh among 61 qualified running backs in explosive rush rate, so if he’s getting to the second level frequently, you can bank on him ripping off some chunk runs. The Cowboys allowed James Cook to run 25 times for 179 yards and a score last week, so Miami’s run game could have a lot of success.
Jake Ferguson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Jake Ferguson’s involvement in the Dallas passing offense continues to grow every week, and he has 7+ targets in three straight games, essentially operating as the WR2 for the Cowboys. He has averaged 64 receiving yards per game over that stretch and has hit the over on this receiving yardage line in all three games.
With the Dolphins as 1.5-point favorites and an over/under of 50 points, the odds are indicating a high-scoring, back-and-forth game where the Cowboys will likely need to be passing throughout, unlike many of their blowout wins this season where Ferguson hasn’t been as needed. With Miami’s defensive attention on CeeDee Lamb, I love this spot for Ferguson to continue to produce at a high level.
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