Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds, Depth Charts (11/05/23)
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The Philadelphia Eagles (7-1) play host to the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) this Sunday (11/5/23) at 4:25 p.m. EST in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. The Eagles are the betting favorites at -3 against the spread, while the over/under is currently at 46.
This article provides Cowboys vs. Eagles analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the Eagles -3.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Prediction & Best Bet
The Eagles and Cowboys have one of the best, most-heated rivalries in all of sports. This latest chapter of the historic rivalry looks like a heavyweight battle between two of the top contenders in the NFC. The -3 spread makes sense given the strength of both teams, and fans everywhere would love to see a tight, back-and-forth battle in the national spotlight.
In the recent history of this rivalry, however, the games haven’t exactly played out that way. Typically, one team has ended up winning fairly convincingly. The average margin of victory of the last eight matchups is just over 16 points per game. Last year it was 7.5 in their two matchups.
If that trend continues and one team is going to win this matchup handily, it’s most likely to be the Eagles playing at home. The Cowboys have been the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team in 2023. They have won four of their five games by at least 20 points and have an average margin of victory of 24.2 points. In their two losses, one was a 32-point blowout against the 49ers and the other was an inexplicable loss to the Cardinals (Arizona’s only win of the season).
While we don’t expect either team to blow out the other one this time, we do like the Eagles to win and cover the -3. Dallas has looked much better in its last two games after being embarrassed in San Francisco, but they have simply been too inconsistent so far this season to trust them in this spot. So long as the Eagles can avoid a big turnover deficit – which has been their biggest issue so far this season – they should be able to win this game by closer to a touchdown.
When it comes to the total, we lean towards the over, but prefer to focus on backing the Eagles. Both of these offenses have been firing on (mostly) all cylinders lately, and while both defenses are capable of slowing them down, they each have matchup advantages they should be able to exploit to move the ball effectively and create explosive plays.
The hesitation with picking the over is that we expect the Eagles to focus on the running game to exploit the most vulnerable aspect of the Cowboys’ defense. That’s going to slow down the game, limit the number of possessions and depress the total scoring.
If the Eagles’ defense can perform more like it did two weeks ago against Miami rather than last week against Washington, then this game will end up being well under the total of 46, which is another reason the best bet is simply laying the -3.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Prediction & Best Bet: Eagles win 27-21, Eagles -3 (-110)
Cowboys vs. Eagles Best Betting Odds
The spread in this matchup is sitting right at the key number of 3. It would likely take some sharp action on either side to move it even 0.5 in either direction, but it’s worth monitoring.
The over/under opened as high as 47 at some sportsbooks but now sits at 46 across the market.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 24-21.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Key Injuries
The most significant injury on either team in this game is Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who is not on the injury report but is known to be dealing with a left knee injury (believed to be a bone bruise but unconfirmed). Besides Hurts, the Eagles most important injury to monitor is to slot CB Bradley Roby, who has missed 2 games with a shoulder injury and remains questionable. Starting RG Cam Jurgens is eligible to return from IR this week, and his backup Sua Opeta is also on the injury report.
The most significant Cowboys injury to monitor is LT Tyron Smith, who missed last week’s game with a neck stinger and as of this writing has not yet returned to practice. His backup Chuma Edoga was carted off with an ankle injury last week but appears to have avoided a significant injury as he practiced Wednesday on a limited basis. Starting S Jayron Kearse is also on the injury report but is expected to play.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Cowboys vs. Eagles below.
Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys’ ball hawks
As mentioned above, turnovers have been the biggest issue plaguing the Eagles this season. They have committed 13 turnovers, which is the sixth most in the league, and have a -3 differential on the season (24th). Jalen Hurts has already thrown eight interceptions after only throwing six last year.
The Cowboys have forced 13 takeaways (tied for fifth most) and their +6 differential is tied for fourth best. They have also led the league in takeaways and been top two in differential each of the last two seasons. Cornerback Daron Bland has admirably filled the giant hole left by injured All-Pro Trevon Diggs and has three pick-sixes already this season.
3RD PICK-6 OF THE YEAR FOR DARON BLAND 🔥
📺: #LARvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/EwrfaHMF8f— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
The Eagles have managed to win three games this season when losing the turnover battle, but that is not a sustainable formula for success, especially against an opponent of the Cowboys’ caliber. If this game goes sideways for the Birds, turnovers are the most likely reason.
CeeDee Lamb vs. Eagles’ slot coverage
The Eagles’ A.J. Brown has been getting all the hype after breaking an NFL record with 6 consecutive games of 125+ receiving yards, but CeeDee Lamb is also having a fantastic season and is coming off back-to-back 100+ yard games. He set new career highs with 12 receptions and 158 yards last week against the Rams.
Against the Eagles on Christmas Eve last year, Lamb had 10 catches on 11 targets for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. After Eagles slot corner Avonte Maddox left the game with an injury, the Cowboys lined up Lamb almost exclusively in the slot and he absolutely abused whoever covered him.
CeeDee Lamb with a big TD from Dak Prescott
Avonte Maddox wasn’t in there. He left after getting hurt
Eagles are down 14 to 10
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) December 24, 2022
Maddox is out for the season and the Eagles don’t have a suitable backup in the slot. After they exhausted all their options following the Maddox injury, they signed veteran Bradley Roby to plug the hole, but he is questionable to play in this game. It’s likely that Josiah Scott or rookie Sydney Brown will handle most of the slot duties, and Lamb should have a significant mismatch in either case.
Lamb led all wide receivers with 967 yards when lined up in the slot last season and is 7th so far this season with 271, per PFF data.
Cowboys Depth Chart
QB: Dak Prescott
RB1: Tony Pollard
RB2: Rico Dowdle
LWR: CeeDee Lamb
RWR: Michael Gallup
SWR: Brandin Cooks
TE1: Jake Ferguson
Eagles Depth Chart
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB1: D’Andre Swift
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
LWR: A.J. Brown
RWR: DeVonta Smith
SWR: Olamide Zaccheaus
TE1: Dallas Goedert
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