Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/8/23)

The Dallas Cowboys face the San Francisco 49ers in Sunday Night Football (10/8/23). Get Cowboys vs. 49ers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Cowboys vs. 49ers game?

Christian McCaffrey First TD (+400 BMGM)

Across 14 starts with the 49ers, McCaffrey owns an astonishing 17 touchdowns. He currently leads the NFL in touches, yards and touchdowns, which has vaulted him into MVP conversations. McCaffrey also ranks second in red zone carries and fourth in inside the five-yard-line carries, so the red zone volume is there too. He’s San Francisco’s top overall option, and he completely commands the backfield with backup running back Elijah Mitchell injured. 

Dallas is a tough matchup, but their run defense is weaker than their secondary. The Cowboys are 26th in opponent yards per carry and 8th in opponent rush expected points added per play, which will be easier to beat than a secondary that leads the league in opponent dropback expected points added per play. 

The 49ers are one of three teams to score the first touchdown in every game, and they are one of two teams to score a touchdown on their first drive in three of four games. Essentially, backing San Francisco to score first is the wise move regardless of their matchup. 

McCaffrey must score the first touchdown about 20 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Brandon Aiyuk First TD (+1000 FD) 

The breakout is here – Aiyuk leads the NFL in yards per route run and overall receiving grade (per PFF, min. 20 targets). He also paces San Francisco pass-catchers in air yards share, target share, first read target share, end zone targets, red zone targets, and inside the ten-yard-line targets. In other words, Aiyuk is the undisputed top receiver and best option to crack this Dallas secondary. George Kittle’s lack of involvement is encouraging for McCaffrey and Aiyuk too, as Deebo Samuel would be the only other significant 49er threat to score the first touchdown. 

Aiyuk has to score the first touchdown about 9 percent of the time.

Tony Pollard First Cowboys TD (+250 BMGM)

Although Pollard only has two touchdowns, it’s not due to a lack of opportunities. He easily leads the NFL in red zone carries and inside the five-yard-line carries. It’s a difficult matchup for both Dallas’ run game and passing offense, so gravitating towards volume is the key here. Based on Pollard’s volume profile, he’s the safest option to be placed into a scoring opportunity. 

Pollard must score Dallas’ first touchdown about 28 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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