Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans (12/29/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

With only two weeks left in the regular season, each game gets more interesting with unfinished divisional titles and playoff seedings on the line. Especially for the Titans who are desperately hanging onto divisional title hopes as their only path to a playoff berth. This game has no impact on their chances as their week 18 date against the Jags will decide the division winner. With little interests on both ends, who comes out on top?

Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans Betting Odds

Oddsmakers initially had this as a near pick’em, opening the Titans as a slight favorite on the lookahead line. That line has seen drastic change after weeks of anemic offensive play and the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, now shifting the line to the Cowboys favor at -9.5. Bettors have been neutral at the current line, indicating it may tick it higher to the key number of -10 while it is getting the brunt of ticket handle and total dollars.

As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a premium as they opened the total at 44.5. Bettors were quick in agreement, taking the under down to as low as 42 in some shops. The Titans grossly underperformed in their rookie quarterbacks first game out against the lowly Texans, now getting a date with a much tougher Dallas defense. With this game having zero impact on their playoff hopes, it will be interesting to see how they approach this with a potential conservative playbook.

Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans Prediction

The Pick: Under 42.5

Even after dropping a couple of points, I still like the under at the current number for a smaller wager. Even with a more dynamic dual threat quarterback in the backfield, Malik Willis has not shown the ability to give this anemic offense any more life than what they have shown all season. They rank well below average in both Off Pass and Rush DVOA, and now get to go against an elite Cowboys defense.

It will also be interesting to see how the Titans attack this game from an offensive perspective as this game has no impact on their playoff chances. Expecting a very conservative playbook that features a heavy dose of the run, Derrick Henry may struggle to find success against a Cowboys defense that ranks top-5 in Def Rush DVOA.

Even then, I would be surprised to see if they give Henry a heavy usage as they will need him fresh and healthy in a do or die game next week. This puts more pressure on Willis to find success in the air, an area that the Titans rank near dead last in. With limited potential for success on offense, I expect plenty of stalled out Titan’s drives that will occur early and often.

Betting Trends

• Under is 10-2 in Titans last 12 home games
• Under is 6-2 in Titans last eight games vs a team with a winning record

Key Injuries

Dallas Cowboys Injuries: Sam Williams (D), Trevon Diggs (Q), Micah Parsons (Q), Leighton Vander Esch (O)

Tennessee Titans Injuries: Josh Thompson (D), Aaron Brewer (Q), Nate Davis (D), Nicholas Petit-Frere (Q), Dylan Cole (O), Terrance Mitchell (O), Ben Jones (O), Ryan Tannehill (O)

Key Matchups

Can the Titans defense limit the Cowboys offense?

Cowboys pass attack vs Titans defense

The Cowboys offense have steadily formed into one of the more deadly units in football. Ranked top-5 in Overall Off DVOA, Dak Prescott has turned this pass attack into a lethal unit. When his receivers aren’t dropping passes into picks, this offense is incredibly tough to get off the field.

They are poised for another big game as the Titans secondary has been lackluster throughout the season. An area of concern for our under.

But luckily for us, this is also a game that has little playoff impact on the Cowboys as well. If Dallas gets out ahead early, we may see them call off the dogs and try to cruise to a victory on the ground. The Titans are one of the best at limiting the run, giving us an ample opportunity to run out the time with clock draining drives.

Verdict

Take the under at no lower than 41 in what will be a clunker of a Thursday night primetime game.

Dallas Cowboys Depth Chart

QB: Dak Prescott
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott
RB2: Tony Pollard
LWR: CeeDee Lamb
RWR: Michael Gallup
SWR: TY Hilton
TE1: Dalton Schultz

Tennessee Titans Depth Chart

QB: Malik Willis
RB1: Derrick Henry
RB2: Hassan Haskins
LWR: Robert Woods
RWR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
SWR: Treylon Burks
TE1: Austin Hooper