Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders NFL Player Props & Picks (1/7/24)
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Player Prop Picks
The Washington Commanders (4-12) are looking to play spoiler this Sunday (1/7/24) when they host their NFC East division rivals the Dallas Cowboys (11-5), who are trying to clinch a division title and the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys are double-digit road favorites at -13 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 46 total points.
This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Cowboys vs. Commanders player prop bets.
Dak Prescott under 278.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Options are limited for player prop bets in this game — at least as of the time of this writing on Friday afternoon — because there is uncertainty about who will and will not be playing in this game and how much certain players will be playing. There are currently no player props available for any Commanders players, and slight catalog of Cowboys props.
That being said — given the options we have available — the best bet on the board is the under on Dak Prescott’s passing yards. Under normal circumstances we would certainly feel very good about Prescott shredding the underachieving Commanders passing defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA and 31st in EPA against the pass. Prescott torched them for 331 passing yards back in Week 12.
However, there are two big factors working against Prescott in this game. The first and most important one is the weather. This bears monitoring as kickoff gets closer, but as of now the game is expected to be played in rainy and windy conditions with a chance for snow.
A Nor’easter looks to make an impact on NFL games Sunday. Hopefully our subscribers were able to get on these plays before the big moves this morning.
Pats 33↘️30.5 💨
Giants 45↘️41 💨❄️
Commanders 48.5↘️46 💨❄️#sportsbetting #bettingtwitter pic.twitter.com/0qcArmkZnL— BettorWeather (@BettorWeather) January 1, 2024
Naturally, that kind of weather is going to make it difficult to push the ball through the air.
The other factor creating headwinds on expectations for Prescott’s passing yards is the anticipated game script. If the Cowboys jump out to a big lead in the first half like they did when these teams played on Thanksgiving, Dallas may choose to rest some of its key players in the second half – especially considering bad field conditions could increase the risk of injuries. Prescott would certainly fit the bill as a player who would be benched out of an abundance of caution.
Given the combination of weather and possible reduced playing time, Prescott’s prop line of 278.5 passing yards is very high. Even if Prescott ends up playing the whole game, there is a still a good chance he stays under that number. He has been under this number in 10 of his 16 games this season, including three of his last four. The matchup is very favorable, but the other factors impacting this game make this a very solid bet.
CeeDee Lamb under 93.5 receiving yards (-104 at Caesars)
If Prescott is going to have a relatively quiet game given the conditions surrounding this game, then it follows that CeeDee Lamb is likely to have a quiet game (by his standards) as well. He is arguably just as important to the Cowboys’ success and playoff outlook as Prescott is, and he is just as likely to see reduced snaps in this game, especially if the Cowboys jump out to a big lead.
The Cowboys will not need Lamb to put up the superhuman numbers he has produced this season in order to win this game comfortably. Lamb had just four catches for 53 yards when the Cowboys dominated the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving.
Of course, it would not be surprising if Lamb explodes again in this game after he just had a career-high 227 yards last week. The matchup could not be more favorable for him. Even in bad weather conditions, Lamb could take a short pass and use his elite run-after-catch ability to burst up the field and pick up huge chunks of yardage. That could be a viable strategy for the Cowboys in this game.
We just don’t think Lamb will be needed this week, and the Cowboys will want to play it safe with their star wide out as they have their eyes set on a deep playoff run.
Tony Pollard under 60.5 rushing yards
As of this writing, this bet is not available at any of the major sportsbooks, but it is available on the Underdog Fantasy app. So rather than continuing to discuss the Cowboys’ passing attack, let’s just assume that the sportsbooks will add this prop before kickoff at a similar number, which is often the case with the lines from Underdog.
Pollard had his second-best rushing performance of the season when these teams played on Thanksgiving Day, gaining 79 yards on just 13 carries. However, that was one of only six games all season in which Pollard surpassed 60 rushing yards in what has been a largely disappointing season for the talented running back.
Pollard is certainly capable of going well over this number, as he already did earlier this season. But as with the Prescott and Lamb picks, we just do not think it will be necessary for the Cowboys to give Pollard a heavy workload this week. We expect reserve running backs Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn to see more action in this game instead.
The weather could force the Cowboys into a run-heavy game script. They are also likely to go run-heavy in the second half if they build a big lead. But again, despite Pollard’s struggles this season, it will still be important for Dallas to keep him healthy and fresh for their playoff run. Those reduced workload expectations make the under on 60.5 rushing yards a solid bet.
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