Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Preview (2/4/23): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The shorthanded Dallas Mavericks (28-25) kick off a five-game road trip versus the defending champs Golden State Warriors (26-26). Luka Doncic, Christian Wood, Maxi Kleber, and Davis Bertans are all out for Dallas. On the other side, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are questionable after missing Thursday’s game.

Which team will secure a vital seeding victory? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Because Doncic and Wood are unavailable, the Warriors are a massive favorite. The spread is -9.5, and they own an unplayable -430 moneyline. For Dallas’ +350 moneyline to be a profitable bet, the Mavericks must win here at least 23% of the time. Meanwhile, the 225 over under is on the lower end for Saturday games.

Dallas has the worst cover percentage this season at a measly 34%, and Golden State ranks 3rd in over percentage at 60%. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and the Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings at Golden State.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

I’m going with the Warriors to cover -9.5 and over 225 total points.

In six games without Doncic this season, the Mavericks are 0-6 and averaging 106.3 PPG. They are built around his scoring and playmaking, so the offense sputters once it’s removed. Wood’s self shot creation and scoring are also crucial; Dallas must navigate this matchup with two of their three offensive pillars missing.

Bullock, Finney-Smith, and Hardaway Jr are solid catch and shoot pieces, but asking them to shoot off the dribble is unwise. Powell remains a roll threat, but he requires precise passes that only Dinwiddie can pull off consistently. Outside of Dinwiddie, Dallas will lean heavily on the inexperienced Josh Green and Jaden Hardy to create something out of nothing. They can attack Golden State’s weak defensive guards, yet the net gain won’t be enough considering Curry, Poole, and Klay’s offense.

The Warriors also own a sparkling 108.7 Defensive Rating at home, which would rank 1st in the NBA for all games. Wiggins and Draymond will lock down their matchups and ensure that it morphs into Dinwiddie versus the Warriors.

On the other end, Dallas is 21st in opponent Open 3 Rate and 17th defending catch and shoot threes (per ShotQuality). Golden State should acquire plenty of great looks from deep and punish the Mavericks from countless screens. And with Wood’s improved rim protection gone, Golden State can leverage their shooting threat to routinely attack the basket.

Overall, I expect the Warriors to cruise here and score a ton of points. The Mavericks rely on Doncic and Wood too heavily to survive this matchup against Golden State.

Betting Trends

  • Mavericks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall
  • Under is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 road games
  • Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
  • Under is 10-4-1 in Warriors last 15 home games
  • Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the key matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Jaden Hardy

The rookie has shown flashes of elite instant offense, and Dallas desperately needs it tonight. Golden State’s bench is the weakest it has been in a long time, so the Mavericks could win the bench minutes if Hardy puts on a show. The opportunities will be there, and he won’t face an elite defensive guard.

Jordan Poole Efficiency

It’s hard enough to guard Curry, Klay, and Wiggins, so an efficient Poole night means Golden State’s offense becomes near-unguardable. He can take creation pressure off of Curry’s shoulders and allow Curry to play off-ball more where he goes nuclear. If Poole scores 25+ points here on good efficiency, then it would be stunning if Dallas covered +9.5.

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Jordan Poole
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Andrew Wiggins
C: Draymond Green

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Luka Doncic (O), Christian Wood (O), Maxi Kleber (O), Davis Bertans (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Stephen Curry (P), Klay Thompson (Q), Draymond Green (Q), Andre Igoudala (O), Patrick Baldwin Jr (Q)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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